Over the last two trading days, both the S&P and Dow have made successively higher closes, while the T Theory VO has made lower closes (79 to 71 to 50).
I went back and reviewed 2010 to investigate bearish divergences between price and the VO in uptrends. I found no cases where the divergence persisted over back to back trading days.
I did find the following "double tap" bearish divergences between the VO and both the S&P and Dow that signaled a correction ahead:
1/11 & 1/14 bear divergence preceding the correction that started 1/19.
4/13 & 4/15 bear divergence preceding the correction that started 4/26.
10/26 & 11/1 bear divergence preceding the correction that started 11/5.
However, I also found bearish divergences on the following dates that were signals of, as the Smiths might say, "nothing in particular:"
3/9
3/15
3/30
7/12
9/15
9/17
10/11
10/21
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I agree with you. Overnight futures are down a couple bucks and I think momentum topped on friday. Looking for a 2% downturn in the spx.
ReplyDeleteHey Parker Re: Institutional Buying from StockTiming
ReplyDeleteThe Institutional Index is a propritary index that is created from data StockTiming Buys and crunches. A subscription to them is about $30/mo and you can get their "free" update daily - it is really their promo for their service.
They are not the only ones who do this. There is a company in Tenn that does something similiar but on a Tick by Tick basis for daytraders and Hedge Funds. Cost about $10,000/mo so for serious traders.
StockTiming is classic technical stuff but very good on their interpurtations and they occasionally have "radical" comments (like the Fed must me STUPID etc.)
Its not really a trading site in the sense they don't do setups and trade now indicators you have to be "learned" enough to understand it and make your own decisions. Still its good stuff
It won't be long now before the huge spike in rates demolishes the stock market.
ReplyDeleteAnd with that said we shrug off all bad news and rip. Market can't go down with people predicting it. Especially that guy Scott gets so wildly exuberant with any whiff of a sell off. Won't happen this year for sure. Then January rally, then Feb pause...
ReplyDeleteThe elephant in the room is that the market is strong...why do people refuse to see the elephant?
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing your insights. Add another Bear signal. The Hindenburg Omen was triggered yesterday.
Not that again, it caused a 25% rally from the low in August!!
ReplyDelete