We know the daily MFT projects a December 8 end to the current up move in the S&P. Then again, daily MFTs are sometimes imprecise.
So I have dug down to smaller time frames to see if we can refine the forecast. I found nothing on the hourly, but when I looked at the 30 minute chart of SPY, it forecasts an end to the up move at about the close of December 6 or open of December 7:
This time frame is confirmed if we look at a 15 minute chart of the Dollar, which suggests that temporary Dollar weakness should end on the afternoon of December 6. Recall that: 1) stocks are trading inversely with the dollar, and 2) the hourly Dollar chart shows a Money Flow top on December 17-20:
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I've been following you and Terry for about 6 weeks now and reviewing all your information and techniques - thank you for your efforts in trying to simplify and turn down the noise of this manipulated and decaying old world Weltanschauung that the cabal refuses to let go of.
ReplyDeleteThe T's are a great addtion to my overall technical perspective and have allowed me to see the intermediate patterns clearer.
Thanks to you and Terry for your exploration and free sharing of these techniques...
Into the selling climax we go???
Peace - Scott
Why do you and Terry always go up and out to the right? The way Terry said this would go down is not even close. Now, he is saying gold is a bubble, yet it continues to be strong and going higher...
ReplyDeleteMarketlive
ReplyDeleteI don't get what you mean "up and out to the right"? Please elaborate.
Parker do you have a money flow T view on SLV? Many thanks.
ReplyDeleteparker on above chart there is one overbought MF on extreme left side of chart. I think around 5th nov peak .. what will be T with that as centerpost or there can't be T with that as centerpost?
ReplyDeleteParker, regarding your earlier post regarding going short under 1216, if the senate votes (I believe they're voting tomorrow) to extend the tax cuts for the middle class the market could gap up Monday. Not voting for it in this climate would be political suicide, espeically given today's jobs numbers.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to short too but am worried about a Monday gap up/continuation. I try to stay away from news moves when trading. Your more sensitive MFT indicating the 7th might make a late Monday short more reasonable? Thoughts?
what is mfi setting .. 10? 14? as i am not getting same overbougt level on 30 min chart as your picture says.
ReplyDeleteYash
ReplyDeleteThe setting is 14 periods. Regarding the MFI peak on 11/5, unfortunately Stockcharts only goes back 1 month on 30 minute charts. Impossible for me to see if that MFI peak is a center post on this particular chart.
Hunt
Yes. I deleted that language about going short under 1216 for that reason. I will wait to see how the market fares Monday afternoon before making a decision. There is no domestic economic news on Tuesday. A sell off starting Tuesday might originate in the Eurozone overnight.
The Hook
The 1H GLD and 30M SLV Money Flow Ts show an end to the up move either at the close of December 10 or the open of December 13.
Yash
ReplyDeleteI stand corrected. I can go back more than 30 days on 30 minute charts. That must have recently changed.
Up and to the right means how Terry has drawn his "Magic T's" the past few years when his predictions turn out to be wrong. I like your approach though it is systematic yet a bit more flexible in approach.
ReplyDeletein fidelity 30 min chart spy mfi(14) on 11/26 is around 65 and not 80 as shown in your chart. and then it touched 80 yesterday which is again not as per your chart. so seems there may be differtnt readings in different sites.
ReplyDeleteA predicted high early 12-7 might give us a "turnaround tuesday", haven't seen one of those in a while...
ReplyDeleteParker, thanks. Agreed. One of the tools I use is market profile trader and, although there is only an hour left in the day session, I can tell you today's profile needs some work work on the lower side, just below 1215.75.
ReplyDeleteI seriously can't wait to hear (for a few minutes at least) Terry stutter and rationalize the market and gold's strength this Sunday.
ReplyDeletecool agrees with my stuff: http://mysquigglylines.blogspot.com/
ReplyDelete"The 1H GLD and 30M SLV Money Flow Ts show an end to the up move either at the close of December 10 or the open of December 13" Parker so the Gold MFT has changed slightly?
ReplyDeleteNasdaq and Gold are melting up. Nenner is right like 70% vs Laundry about 20%. You are following the wrong guy.
ReplyDeleteParker, It appears to me that in your 30min SPY chart, you simply used the peak of the MFI - even though price action and MFI did not diverge after the peak (they both turned south). Have you determined that you don't need a divergence when locating intraday MFI centerposts? Or am I misinterpreting something here?
ReplyDeleteThanks for all you do in this blog.
joe
Sunspots vs T's!!!
ReplyDeleteTuesday we will see what happens
Rodd
ReplyDeleteYes - the shorter time frames are suggesting that the gold MFT ends on the afternoon of December 10 instead of December 7.
Joe
ReplyDeleteYes - the center post goes at the MFI peak. We know there was divergence because on December 1, price made a higher high than the day of the MFI peak, but MFI was lower than it was on the MFI peak day.
Sometimes, you don't know if you have a Money Flow T until days or weeks after a MFI peak. It is price breaking to new highs while the MFI is below the old MFI peak which alerts you to the existence of the Money Flow T.
Parker, thanks for the clarification. I was definitely considering only the first few ticks after the MFI peak to locate divergences for center posts. You have cleared up much for me. Thanks again.
ReplyDeletejoe
Marketlive,
ReplyDeleteTerry said Gold has a long T. I don't think he uses the word bubble.