Very interesting post at The Truth About Cars ("TTAC") comparing 2009 and 2010 sales volumes for the Top 6 models in the Top 6 sales categories. The only models behind their 2009 sales pace are:
Toyota
Camry
Corrolla
Prius
Tacoma
Honda
Accord
Civic
One possible explanation: the South Koreans (Hyundai & Kia) are doing to the Japanese what the Japanese did to the American auto makers 25 years ago -- building a better, cheaper mouse trap.
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Hi Parker, car sales made me think of retail sales and I was curious to see if RTH (retail business ETF) had delivered any warning signal of a reversal in the past. IT did in 2005 (minor correction), 2007 (just at the all time top), the bottom of 2009, and...NOW. RTH is still below its APril peak (as is Transportation by the way). The won't be a confirmation before RTH breaks down below its July bottm though, but I though this was another interesting bearish divergence to take note of.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/o1FdwZI68Wyl
Cool chart, thanks Carl!
ReplyDeleteI own a hyundai coupe...my second hyundai.
ReplyDeleteThey stand behind the warranty (unlike Toyota) and the car is very tight.
I also ride chinese electric mopeds so my Hyundai will never hit the 100k warranty!
GOLD is getting hit. Down about 5% now from its highs - 1320 is last support before 1260...that would be a great sale price!
The mopeds are pretty reliable as long as you buy one in the crate...
Scott
ReplyDeleteLast week I called for a gold correction to ~1336 by ~Dec 20.
http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/12/gold-correction.html
Parker - good call - I just wonder with the strong dollar if support will hold there?
ReplyDeleteFXE is well below the gap
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXE&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=30&id=p13011207057&a=191596129
Fwiw, the last Dollar CIT was on 12/9, which was the 12/8 High. The next Dollar CIT is today 12/16.
ReplyDeleteThe Solar CITs are 84-90% accurate. the next Solar CIT is on 12/17.
My understanding is that once T13 has expired, the bullish phase is over, and all T's from now on are suspect for being bearish T's. The fact that the half way point of the 4 yr cycle comes out to March 2011, doesn't mean that the top can't come in early. In fact, if this 4 yr cycle is supposed to be bearish (according to the 40 yr cycle), the bull phase of the 4 yr cycle should be shorter than its bear phase. So we should expect the top to be earlier than March 2011.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, if you look as to when prices started diving in the previous bear phase, it was around Dec 31 2007 / Jan 1 2008. That's the time when we had the Bear Cross (MA 50 crossing MA 200 to the downside). Right now, the distance between MA 50 and MA 200 is expanding. You can't expect these 2 MAs to keep diverging into the top date of March 2011. For the bear market to start, these 2 MAs need to start rolling over for the eventual bear cross. And for that to happen, prices need to stop going up, and start having occasional sell-offs, or at least go into a trading range. So my conclusion is that being long will not be profitable.
In fact if pay attention to Terry, he has stopped trading equities. He keeps saying that the big profits will come from Gold.
Personally, I think the bearish side in stocks will be very profitable, but not until we get close to a bear cross of MAs 50 and 200.
Raj - are you saying that the dollar reverses today and the markets resume uptrend?
ReplyDeleteAchilles -
ReplyDeleteby the look of my charts the 50/200 isn't likely to get close to crossing unless we test 1200
there is lots of support there just above 1180
I think the Euro is key - if it stays below 131.60 and breaks down to fill the gap just above 130 then equities and gold will get a real correction...if not, then not.
Scott, yes that is what it suggests.
ReplyDeleteThe 12/16 CIT is often exact, but could be off by a half day or so. These geometric CIts are 70-80% accurate, ie 20-30% of the time they don't work, so take them fwiw.
I look at specific cycles to confirm these timing methods or not.
the more likely date for a reversal is on 12/17 when my more reliable Solar CIT is due.
ReplyDeleteThanks Raj!
ReplyDeleteRaj,
ReplyDeleteI assume that today is the expected low in stocks and the trend is now up...sure looks like a reversal higher right now. I believe that fits in with your CIT in the dollar and equities...meaning the dollar hits a high today or tomorrow and equities likely hit a low this morning.
Fred, the more likely Dtae is 12/17 for Stocks, at least that is what I am watching
ReplyDeleteRaj may be right - Euro is above 131.60
ReplyDeletewaiting a couple of hours to see if raise cash to buy SLV and IAU...
Achilles
ReplyDeleteCheck out the post "Is T14 Starting".
It's quite apparent that prices can rise for a time during the left side/cash build up phase of the next T.
TLT looks to be a fly in the ointment?
ReplyDeleteRaj,
ReplyDeleteWe did get a lower daily low today on the S&P than yesterday. If we happen to get a high tomorrow (higher than any high this week so far), what would that do with your CIT. We would have both a low and a high within a 2 day period. Would today be the trend change (meaning up for the next few days at least) or would tomorrow be the trend change (meaning down). Obviously it has to play out this way, but just wanted your thoughts.
Too many people looking for correction, it ain't gonna go down.
ReplyDeleteJust my $.02
Where's the TOP ?
ReplyDeleteCheck out Idealized Current Cyclical Bull at
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3615958&cmd=show[s183070042]&disp=O
This is Jac Jaroslaw take on the markets. He seems to be a fundamentalist claiming oil at $150, Gold at $2000, and interest rates >5% will be the final killer of this Bull Market. His top is in Sept Oct at 1576.
Mega T's depends on the analyst. Terry L's ened in Aug 2010 and frizshizzle's ended Dec. 7. But if we are going down into 2014-16 an error of 6 mo. is nothing on the Mega T scale.
As to Gold AAForecast says low $13.17 for IAU and top $14.85 Mar 18. He thought the low would be Dec 10. IAU is at $13.40 so it has a ways to go.
David Einhorn, Greenlight Hedge Fund was on Bloomberg this morning. His book "You Can Fool Some of the People All the Time" lays out the problems with our markets which he says haven't been fixed - He looks for inefficiencies in the markets to provide an annual return of 20%+. He is long Gold.
http://pugsma.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/pug-sp-500-5-min-eod-12-15-10.jpg
ReplyDeleteI dont always agree with PUG's counts but the short term analysis has been on lately.
chart suggests a move back to 1235ish and possibly back to 1219...
my poor man's fractal chart below suggests the same
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p13202339058&a=184468147
I dont know what that bodes for any possible CIT in the USD
FXE so far has failed to break out - currency no mans land! lol
Fred, that is a good question. Timingwise I had 12/16-17 as the CIT to watch.
ReplyDeleteThe dominant cycles were looking for a 12/13-14 High and a brief pullback into 12/16-17 Lows, before heading to Higher Highs, so yes it is possible that we have already seen a Low in the 1st hour today, but I was hoping it would be tomorrow
Price wise, The cycles were expecting a sharper decline into 12/16-17 Lows, but in these Cycles, Price Magnitude is not assured.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p80380741774&a=195968380&listNum=12
ReplyDeletecheck out above chart
Stevcabana
ReplyDeleteThat's one of the charts I look at (%S&P above 50MA). It's one of many bearish divergences out there right now.
We are due for a serious correction. The question is "when"?
BKX fading hard and is a real indicator lately
ReplyDeleteFXE, SLV, GLD cant find any footing - indicating USD is still handing in there?
Made not changes to my shorts or Rydex Stenthening Dollar - didn't raise cash yet for gold or silver...
Ian (Raj), someone told me you had Thursday/Friday as a potential BIG down day. is that correct and I presume, looking at today's tape, it would shift to tomorrow if the information is correct. Thanks, CS
ReplyDeleteUmm...market is strong. Can't anyone else see that or is it only me.
ReplyDeleteJeez, this became a bear hangout for some reason. Anyone making $$ long side?
Claude is that you??
ReplyDeleteYes, I was, but as I mentioned before: Price Magnitude is not assured in these Cycles, iow after 12/17th I am bullish again
Positionsizing,
ReplyDeleteDo you have an email address you can send me. stevcabana@aol.com?
I have been playing with bullish and bearish butterfly pattern. I sent Terry a very detailed chart with projections and all but I have to copy it into an email. It gives two different possibilities based on fibronacci extenstions, and criteria for establishing short positions based on retest volume patterns of key swing points.
Best,
Steve
TLT was sure interesting today - USD still held -
ReplyDeletestrength today was outs being reset for opex. tommorrow as Raj says may be interesting -
yes, its me. I heard you and Roy both had big moves in this time frame, still not out of the question but losing probability by the minute.
ReplyDeleteHey Mr Marketlive
ReplyDeleteDo you have anything to say other than, "the market is up, therefore the only realistic position is to be long" because the market is going up?
I would sincerely like to read your reasons for either being long, or getting long. That would make for an valuable exchange of ideas..
Any thoughts you would offer should include evidence supporting your ideas.. other than.. "the market is up, therefore the market is going up"
Mr Market
ReplyDeleteIn case you have an interest, take a look at my site..http://momentumchanges.blogspot.com, my most recent Momentum Change indicator Buy signal has been posted since 12/1 when Momentum again changed to the long side. That surely does not make me ignorant of the current uptrend, nor a wish for the market to crash. it merely means the short term I am Bullish.
Much of the debate here, and the exchange of ideas has to do the a longer term concern.. and let my assure you that when momentum changes again, I will again enter into short positions. But longer term, the capital I want to leave my kids is tucked into short term, high quality, very liquid debt.
Bill
SPX is 1% higher in 6 weeks from November 5th. Not exactly screaming bullish but certainly stubborn and the multi-month trend is clear. My System went long this morning at 1136.6 and has been long 90% of its trades since SPX 1060. I think 1260ish is very possible short-term, but I'm still in the imminent 2-4+ week 5-10%+ drop camp with new highs thereafter and then a 1+ year collapse in earnest after QE2 ends. Add Hindenberg Omens to the historical ISEE, TRIN and AAII stats I presented a week or so ago. It all fits. Good luck.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article about sentiment extreme: http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteJoe
ReplyDeleteThanks. Evidence of sentiment extreme, like evidence of bearish divergence, abounds.
There is no doubt in my mind we are due for a sizable correction.
The question remains "When"? My current thinking is that:
1. We don't get it during the holidays with the 2nd stringers in charge.
2. There's a chance of it happening in January.
3. If it doesn't happen in January, then all the cycles and Ts and Money Flow Ts suggest that February is the time it starts, and it could last into mid to late March.