Last week's Volume Oscillator for reference
3/7 = -553/8 = -23
3/9 = -25
3/10 = -69
3/11 = -34
This week's VO
3/14 = -50
3/15 = -85
3/16 = -133
3/17 = -83
3/18 = -32
This post will be updated nightly throughout the week, so check back periodically for new information.
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Posts
On March 10, the S&P closed at 1295. To get a true rising bottoms pattern, we need a lower close than 1295 at a VO reading above -69.
ReplyDeleteI don't expect a rising bottoms pattern to form until late this week or perhaps March 21.
Parker.........
ReplyDeleteIf my cycle holds true I beleive the rising bottom will not come til the beginning of April......like always the market will speak! Good trading! joed
http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/
Any thoughts on Seasonality?
ReplyDeleteApril being the best historical month?
2:1 gain:loss ratio
-50... today had it all...perfectly touched the lower trend line...dipped below and closed above the 60ema (which some call the 55ema)... as the saying goes it is all about the close and the close was above the recent low and formed a long tailed candlestick...and the RBP. Should be bullish...either that or the bottom is about to fall out
ReplyDeleteJessie Livermore said in his book that he was fishing in Florida and heard about the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. He immediatedly shorted the California railroad stocks. But the next day they were up in NYC, So he shorted more of them, next day they were up more, so he shorted even more. After a week of a rising market the market began to CRASH.
ReplyDeleteReminiscences of a Stock Operator
Livermore first became famous after the Panic of 1907 when he sold the market short as it crashed. He noticed conditions where a lack of capital existed to buy stock. Accordingly, he predicted that there would be a sharp drop in prices when many speculators were simultaneously forced to sell by margin calls and a lack of credit. With the lack of capital, there would be no buyers in sight to absorb the sold stock, further driving down prices. After the crash and its aftermath, he was worth $3 million.
Jack, Good call last night on the "Bottom Falling Out" Looks like you were right on.
ReplyDeleteA bull trap is probably going to form this afternoon with the Fed Statement. I am sure that Uncle Ben and Tiny Tim are going to try to put a positive spin on what is going on in the market. Don't get conned by the greatest "Judas Goats" in history. They have performed their jobs well so far by leading the innocent lambs to the slaughterhouse and now the slaughter has begun. When you take into consideration that it takes a little over $9 Billion to raise SPX by 1 point, you realize that they don't have enough ammunition to stop a bunch of angry Bears.
The trend is the trend until it isn't. Getting oversold now in the McClellan. $NYMOT traditional McClellan is near to -250 at the moment and that has a high instance of showing a bottom is near. You can download the McClellan spreadsheet from the mcoscillator.com site and plug today's advance-decline numbers to see for yourself. My short is doing nicely, maybe another week or two and I'll be buying.
ReplyDelete-85 today. If today wasn't it, I feel we are close to making the first bottom of a rising bottoms pattern.
ReplyDeletedoes a rising bottoms pattern require price making a lower low while the volume oscillator stays above -85?
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteI sent you a chart at your new T Theory mailbox using inverted MFT's suggesting the bottom is coming on March 29th. Let me know what you think. You can post the chart if you wish.
Aren't we supposed to be seeing higher lows? Today I'm seeing lower lows.
ReplyDeleterjo
ReplyDeleteYes - you are correct. We need to establish a low in the VO. Then we need to make a higher low in the VO at a lower price.
Jeff
I responded to your e-mail. Thanks for the chart!
Robert
I use closing prices. The VO information is not available until 2-3 hours after the close. So we won't know for sure until tonight. But it sure looks like today will produce a lower close in price, and a lower VO reading.
the volume info is available real time from WSJ site so the calcs can be done real time to get a feel for the VO especially as we get near the close. no bottom signaled by the VO as of today. it looks like 38% retracement has worked for the initial pullbacks into big tops. that comes in around 1210-1230 area. below that, 200dma, 75weekly. if we get a high trin and/or low tick close today and VO divergence tomorrow then maybe we get a low before those levels.
ReplyDeletesaw your update on terry site about may 24 peak.
ReplyDeleteOct 10, 2002 bottom + 3142 days = May 17 2011
April 26 top + 393 days (3142/8) = May 23 2011
Thanks for the comments Yash and 9a7.
ReplyDeleteOld tops often become support. Thus I anticipate top-bottom support at ~1230, roughly the November high.
Plus, if we see the same percentage correction on a closing basis that we saw in the Jan-Feb 2010 correction, then the target is 1233.
A 61.8% retracement of the November low to the February high is 1238.
Bottom line, I might start nibbling at a 123x print even without a rising bottoms pattern.
Parker, excuse my ignorance but what's a 123x print?
ReplyDeleteThe McClellan Summation pattern in 2001, right before the crash of 9-11-01, looks very similar to the McClellan Summation pattern of 2010-2011...
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/hGTjVD
Hi Robert
ReplyDeleteI mean if the price dips into the 1230s.
An indicator I have been following is Barack Obama. Is he still the leader of the free world? Off with his family for another taxpayer-paid vacation in Rio, while the world falls apart.
ReplyDeleteParker...
ReplyDeleteThe VO (Blue Plot Line) in Terry's Sunday presentation does not agree with yours...It is currently as deep as it was back in May2010...I track the VO also and my calculations match yours...Can you comment on this please? Thx!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete