Last week's Volume Oscillator for reference
12/6 = 3812/7 = 56
12/8 = 57
12/9 = 67
12/10 = 79
This week's VO
12/13 = 7112/14 = 50
12/15 = 11
12/16 = 29
12/17 = 41
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1240 Breakout. Market is THAT strong.
ReplyDeleteMass confluence of Gann turn dates in the area of the cycle top of 12/29 with fixed dates at 12/31 and 1/3!~ Good trading!
ReplyDeleteEveryone keeps pushing out the dates. Strange.
ReplyDeleteMine have always been the same.........just added confluence!
ReplyDeleteI am so relieved I got out at 1180 from my shorts. Now just watching the rally and everyone doubting it. I think we go A LOT higher.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your posts Parker.
ReplyDeleteBased on my own EW count and the TRIN/ISEE/AAII stats I presented recently, I have recently turned bullish into February and probably even March-June, but I have been expecting a sizable short-term 5-10 day downturn since the extreme action at SPX 1226ish. Now, well over a week has gone by and SPX is about 1.5% higher. The time window for a drop has narrowed, and it might take a Fed or tax deal reaction to kickoff any downside this week. I am now planning to go long the next 20dSMA test based on my System guidelines OR to go short if this rally spikes higher into the first week of January. For what it's worth, in either path, I expect 1170-1200 to be retested before end of January with a subsequent rally to 1300ish with Nasdaq/RUT breaking their 2007 highs in different counts. All long bets are off if 1170-1175 is broken. Good luck.
Good analysis Stu.
ReplyDeleteHas anybody considered that the Null Echo Low may have inverted into a high? The market is certainly showing signs of topping here. For example, the Value Index Index ticked a perfect measured move target off the last decline yesterday and turned lower. NASDAQ-100 and Semiconductors are weak. Apple, which is 20% of NASDAQ, has probably topped. Breadth really stinks. And the volume oscillator on the NYSE common stocks topped on the 3rd. In the last cycle, it topped 14 calendar days before the top---and Friday the 17th is 14 calendar days after the last high in the oscillator.
ReplyDeleteAnd, needless to say from reading the comments on the various blogs, etc., sentiment is sky-high bullish.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteHaven't followed as closely as I should - but - it appears that if you take the A top to the B low(Nov 2008) and project - you got the Apr/May TOP of this year (High-Low-High).
If you take the A high to the C (double bottom) low - you MIGHT get a top RIGHT NOW.
And, the A high to the split bottom (B/C) projected a August LOW.
Maybe the problem was in the interpretation?
Achal
ReplyDeletePlease see my video called Tweaking T13
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y98LnH767_o
I tweaked the start date Terry uses to come up with a late April top using Nov 08 low as a center post, and Nov 12 top using Mar 09 low as a center post.
According to Terry, you can't use the NYAD peak in 2007 and the Mar 09 low because that produces the nulled echo low.
Thanks Parker - I resaw that video again. The issue is that Nov 12th was not the orthodox top as predicted by the T's. However, using Terry's original Jun '07 date and the Mar 09 lows projects a "turn" date in mid Dec 2010. If we DO get a high of sorts in December - then I would propose that the nulled echo low is the problem - not the turn dates using the two B and C bottoms.
ReplyDeleteShivani
ReplyDeleteNov 12th may not be orthodox, but it's only a couple days off the current peak in the NY Advance Decline line. And only a couple days off a 50 point correction in the S&P.
As I noted in a blog post recently, it's not uncommon for prices to rise (while the NYAD falls) during the early part of the left side of the "next T."
See "Is T14 Starting?"