Last week's Volume Oscillator for reference
3/14 = -503/15 = -85
3/16 = -133
3/17 = -83
3/18 = -32
This week's VO
3/21 = -1
3/22 = -15
3/23 = -11
3/24 = 15
3/25 = 25
This post will be updated nightly throughout the week, so check back periodically for new information.
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Posts
The Cash Build Up Line that connects the VO peaks of December 10 and February 17 is currently at 5, so we did not break through the cash build up line on Monday.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your work.
ReplyDeleteHi Parker,
ReplyDeleteI noticed an interesting similarity to the shape of Terry's Long Term Oscillator:
http://ttheory.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83455c65c69e20147e3538e71970b-pi
to the shape of Market Cap as a % of GDP as posted by Barry Ritholz:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/market-cap-as-a-of-gdp-3/
It seems as we are nearing a decision point for the market.
CK...
ReplyDeleteThank you for introducing this chart...
I added another chart to the mix that also displays a very similar pattern...
US Stock Market Value - q and CAPE
You can see it at:
http://bit.ly/hFOz9U
Parker...
ReplyDeleteI posted a forecast chart for 2011 that happens to display a top that is in the ballpark of Peter Eliades, Terry Laundry's and your forecasted top...
So far this forecast resembles the YTD movement in the S&P500 as well...
http://bit.ly/fHnlXv
Did we break the cash buildup line today?
ReplyDeleteThanks Parker.
Hi chlo88
ReplyDeleteBased on the numbers available to me at 3:25 pm CST, we are still in the red.
So no, we did not break it.
Thanks Parker. I wonder if this tight consolidation under the green cash buildup line is a hint that the breakout might be unusually forceful much in the same way prolonged consolidation under resistance will lead to a big pop when the breakout does occur (if it does)...
ReplyDeleteThanks again for your work.
Todays volume oscillator was limp. For the reversal in price we had off the bottom volume did not reflect such a strong change (up 4 points from yesterday) and volume on the hourly saw much higher volume on sell candles. Short term symmetry still favors the downside but lows can be several days early. If we move above 1304.00 and close above it then I think the bottom has already been put in. Right now we have resistance. Just have to wait and see as nothing is confirmed yet.
ReplyDeleteParker
ReplyDeleteMy Momentum Change indicators have generated new Buy signals in several indexes or the ETF's that represent an index. After seeing new Buy signals that appeared intra-day on MOnday which faded by the close, yesterday seemed like a confirmation. I have new Buy signals in the SPY, IWM (RUT), QQQ's (COMP) and JCC (Copper).
I expect we will get a confirmation of a new Price T today with the break of the down trending cash build up line in the Volume Oscillator.
(note that Copper has resumed it role of head cheerleader for the rally).
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
According to my intra-day calculations, the volume oscillator has been having difficulty breaking through the zero line; it's currently around -0.5; it was a bit above the zero line earlier.
ReplyDeleteI have an unofficial reading on the vo of about 11.5 and a break of the trendline connecting the tops of the vo on Dec 10/2010 and Feb 17/2011. I don't know if one can consider this a new T.
ReplyDeleteA 15.1 makes things more interesting.
ReplyDeleteYep
ReplyDeleteWe've broken the cash build up line.
I am confused how the recent market action has adhered to Terry's rules regarding the upper and lower channel boundaries and the mid-channel. The move down on 3/15 and 3/16 definitely broke down below the mid channel, but did NOT get down to the green lower boundary at 1220...we only got down to 1249 on the SPX cash.
ReplyDeleteLikewise, the bounce back up the last 5 days has now broken the mid-channel to the upside? This seems to fly in the face of Terry's market parameters? Since we broke down below the mid channel the market should go down to the green lower channel and the 55 day EMA should be resistance, but this has not happened.
Further confusing is the lack of a rising bottoms pattern in the oscillator. I only have 2 conclusions...either the market is getting ready to slam back down to new lows in price with a higher low in the oscillator or short term t-theory really missed this one and we are headed back up.....
Does anybody here really think that Bernanke and the Fed team, after working as hard as they have to keep the market afloat with QE 1 and 2, is going to let the market crash (at least in the near future, before the next election)?
ReplyDeleteLast August many were predicting a big tumble in the market. Instead we got a big move up. Does anybody here think there won't probably be a QE3? If a QE3 or something along those lines happens, say in September like QE2 did last fall, won't that require a revision to the anticipated downturn that some are predicting to happen after QE2 ends in June of this year?
Just curious...
PS - My knowledge of technicals is no where near what many on this board and Terry can formulate, but my gut feeling tells me the only way we are going to see a market crash sooner than later, is if this current administration doesn't want to be re-elected. By the way, have any of you seen the documentary "Inside Job"? It's well worth the view.
Mike,
ReplyDeleteIf you go to StockCharts.com and plot $SPX using Bollinger Bands (56,2) you will see that on March 16, the low did in fact touch the lower band.
If you look carefully at Terry's bands, you will see that the middle band is a 56 day EMA. Hence the BB(56,2). Hope this helps.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteWhat are the implications of the fact that this time around in the VO we had a V bottom instead of a higher bottoms formation?
Achilles - Thanks for that info regarding the 56 day EMA vs. 55.
ReplyDeleteI am very confused with your interpretation of the lower boundary....in Terry's 3/18 update the lower boundary was 1220? We most certainly did not go down to the lower boundary according to Terry's calculations?
Terry does not use Bollinger Bands. I don't know the formula, but it resembles Keltner Bands much more than it does Bollinger Bands.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure the implication of no rising bottoms pattern. Yesterday's action, however, confirmed to me that March 16 was the bottom. As a result, I'm buying the dips for the ride into June.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteWhat are the parameters for the Keltner bands?
Thanks
There is an inside trend line at 1318 on the daily............also I posted the fixed Gann dates from his original course work for everyone........Good trading!
ReplyDeletehttp://traderjoed.blogspot.com/
Here is the scoop as I understand it. Band movements do not always stop exactly on the red, black or green lines. To think that will always happen will surely lead to disappointment; however, when movement starts up or down the place where it began moving down or up from as in this case bwloe the top red line equal a 1/2 channel move. It started below the red line and moved proportionately below the black midchannel line. If you look at the channels you will see that they quantify approxiametly 95% of all price and do a pretty good job of showing turning points when used in combination with the VO. All of us are expecting a rising bottoms pattern but occasionally it does not come. My interpretation of the V bottom means an important top is about to come and that the market was strong enough not to have to dip a second time so I would not mess around waiting to get back in. Today is a pause day in my opinion. Terry has a special formula that keeps the adaptive channels adapting to price movement so they don't lag the way an ordinary EMA would. Keltner's are the closest but not perfect. I just switched to using a 56, 3.8, 200 setting and before Iwas using a 56,4.0,14. Some settings will contain price better but will not give band numbers that are similar to Terrys they will be off by 10-20 points and other settins will give closer band numbers but not contain price as accurately. You need to experiment with numbers for yourself. This is not an exact scinec but with Terry and Parkers work you should be able to utilize and interpret this stuff to do good trading with it. Anything else is just a problem with yourself and I don't say that it a mean way. Until I started understanding myself better and my actions during trading I was always losing. It is from within that you will find most of your answers to being a better trader. I found if I remove aggressiveness and supplant it with humility and patience and wonders will happen.
ReplyDeleteJeff
ReplyDeleteWell said.
Personally, I became a better trader once I understood that it was more important to protect against loss than to project a profit. Once I paid better attention to "Not Losing", I made many more profits.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
My long signals were confirmed at the close yesterday as well, so I went long BGU (aggressive) and JNK (modest) at the open. Let's see what happens - best of luck to everyone!
ReplyDelete-Rob
It will be interesting to hear Terry's take on the recent market action. I assume he will confirm a new T and any pullbacks should be supported by the 56 day EMA.
ReplyDelete