We gapped down at the open today. I expect at some point we'll attempt to close the gap today (at S&P 1224.71). If we do, I'll be looking to short any breakdown after the gap fill attempt. To manage my risk, I'm out if the S&P breaks to new highs at 1227.25. I will gladly risk ~3-4 points for a potential huge gain if we get a selling climax.
If we don't get a gap fill attempt but start to sell off straight away (gap and go day), I'll be looking to get short under 1211.50.
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Parker thanks for your sharing.
ReplyDeleteFYI: I've spoken to Terry about having a T Theory based forum, he is open to it but it must be moderated, I don't have the time, any volunteers? email me to meluto@gmail.com
Terry is way off base again with this sell off. Market is way to strong. He waits like 2 weeks and then flips typically...He has cost me a fortune the past couple of years in wrong calls and more importantly being too cautious on long side.
ReplyDeleteMarketlive, so stop following Terry, instead of constant complaining.
ReplyDeleteI don't listen to the ramblings anymore. Just pull up the charts. I will warn everyone that he is less than 50/50.
ReplyDeleteMarketlive - Terry runs a fee-based service.
ReplyDeleteHAVE YOU PAID HIM TO MANAGE YOUR MONEY?
NO?
Then you are the one who has lost you money...
Are you 2 years old?
In addition, as for this market being "strong", it hasn't trade above the April high with any conviction and the only strength is POMO casino HFT bets.
ReplyDeleteI've have suffered bear burn to the max lately but it's my fault not Terry's or anyone else's.
This is a tricky market - CD's are where a 2 year old's money should be!
Alright, everybody. Courtesy please.
ReplyDeleteMarketlive - you have made your feelings known about T Theory before. I'm sorry you've lost money.
Then again, I think it's counterproductive for you to keep making negative posts about Terry and T Theory.
Feel free to state your opinions as to what you think the market will do. But please do so in a way that you are not attacking somebody else.
Can you adhere to that guideline?
Parker,
ReplyDeleteDid you get the gap fill you wanted to enter short position?
Yes, Just needed to say my peace as I know a lot of people that visit this site follow him too. I think the market breaks 1240 then continues higher.
ReplyDeleteVapor
ReplyDeleteYes. Long SPXU at 21.23. Stop at 20.95.
on marketlive's comment - my 2 cents .. Terry's classical T theory of ADT is very good but when such ADT expires till new one develops his Ts are same chances like any other method. Bill had explained this many a times. Since ADT13 is expired any further gain will same chance as Ts. ADT13 gave 666 to 1220 (just putting low high number and I know ADT13 won't allow to go in exactly at 666 etc) so now either you have to ferget gains about 1220 which can be 10% more or take his Ts with same chances as any other method. When new ADT will form mostly in 2013-2014 then you can follow classical ADT again.
ReplyDeleteIn last post I had asked parker about his comment about next real T. if it becomes real T then it has 6 months at left (mid-june to mid dec) so again mid-june becomes right side.
I had also written about May 17 and May 23 of 2011 as per armstong cycle. first is 3142 days from oct 10 2002 low and second is 3142/8 = 393 days from april 26 2010 high. btw April 25 2010 high was 3142 days from 9/17 2001 low and top came 1 day late.
I am long copper and gold, short vol. only game in town since July.
ReplyDeleteParker
ReplyDeleteI have not noticed you talking about your Parker Sentiment Indicator..... but I watch it for you! ;-)
The daily has been a little confusing.. not sure what is happening right now.. but the weekly is unequivocal... it does not like the SPX rally and is screaming "get out"
Bill
whooops..
ReplyDeletehere is the link to the chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD:$CPC&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18226262125&a=215676115
Bill
Thanks Bill
ReplyDeleteI watch it everyday. However, since it's an End of Day chart, I seem to get the update around 5 pm.
The weekly chart is wild. Whatever new top, if any, we end up making in the months ahead should show huge bearish divergence.
sorry for the vituperative verbalizations! apologies to all -
ReplyDeletelook at the 144 aroon on the 60min chart - looks like it is staying down in spite of the last weeks rally
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ap_YixOosgI
I'd like to chime in here in Terry's defense, not that he needs my help, but...
ReplyDeleteHe has specifically stated that the T Theory is best used for determining when to buy the market, and he has also stated that the expired T is a good place to look for exits and/or start placing stops under current positions. Anyone who is using the Ts for selling short, and I suspect that there are more than a few of these people around, are asking for trouble.
Terry said the right side of the T is a low risk area. However, after the T expired, we enter a high risk territory. So, on a risk management perspective, people should consider exit at that time. Decision should be made on a risk-and-rewards basis and that is why he asks people to consider exit. Not that the market must drop.
ReplyDeleteJust my 2c on T-Theory. My biggest gripe is that we are seeing higher high on cumulative advance decline line - and that is a big no-no under T-Theory where the left side of the T should see a cash build-up with declining tops in cumulative advance decline line. I can understand price making a higher high but not the cumulative advance decline line making a higher high. Terry has never adequately explained how it could happen.
ReplyDeleteMy other issue is that Terry is sticking with short term volume oscillator T and advance decline oscillator T. These T's just don't work and are often in conflict with each other. I think it's time Terry sees that some of these short term T's actually do not help his T-Theory and only clutter the overall picture. On the other hand, Parker's addition of Money Flow T in a trending market and price based T in a range market (to which Terry originally denied as being plausible) seem to be a far better area of research going forward.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteI think going short this market is a very agressive trade, but you certainly found a nice risk/reward set-up. I personally am long cotton, copper, and agriculture, but best of luck on your trade.
CSW: the traditional advance-decline line has changed a lot over the years and has a lot of non-operating company shares. This includes closed end bond funds which accumulate dividends each day until they disgorge a dividend at the end of the quarter. Thus, you get 89 days up and only one day down. This distorts the a-d line. If you remove those issues from the a-d line, it's acting normal, not making new highs and not confirming new highs in the market.
ReplyDeleteThanks Bob.
ReplyDeleteI understand Carl Swenlin at DecisionPoint offers a "common stock only" version of the NYSE Advance Decline line.
Bob, do you have a graph that removes those issues? I'd like to see the 'actual' a/d line. thanks.
ReplyDeleteBob, I would like to see those issues too, if you don't mind to share with us.
ReplyDeleteBob, I disagree it is the non-operating components of NYSE that is distorting the cumulative AD line. I actually have the common stock only version of cumulative AD line and it has also made a higher high right now against Nov high (and back in Nov against Apr). More seriously, Terry's cumulative AD Line does not take into account of the growth of new issues on NYSE, again further distorting the cumulative AD line. I am not sure if a ratio adjusted version (in the same vein as the ratio adjusted McClellan AD Oscillator) would fix the issue.
ReplyDeleteHi all. Just a note on the daily cash SP500 ... the next print of a valid TD Sequential Countdown sell bar will be #13. That is the signal in this methodology to look for uptrend exhaustion.
ReplyDeleteMarketlive
ReplyDelete"In your face" posts are not allowed. State your position and explain your theories, but don't taunt, insult or ridicule opposing views.
Is courtesy so hard?
Saxby
ReplyDeleteAs I understand it, the Sequential Countdown occurs only after a completed Set Up. Are you saying the Set Up was completed with the price action from mid-June to early July?
Where do you start your Sequential Countdown?
Thanks
Looks like Terry has changed his short range forecast and believes the rally will continue into January.
ReplyDeletewww.ttheory.com
Parker: The currently active TD Sell Setup began on October 5 with countdown commencing October 18.
ReplyDeleteBy the way .... thanks for sharing all of your hard work!