Last week's Volume Oscillator for reference
12/13 = 7112/14 = 50
12/15 = 11
12/16 = 29
12/17 = 41
This week's VO
12/20 = 4112/21 = 54
12/22 = 48
12/23 = 28
This post will be updated nightly throughout the week, so check back periodically for new information or you can subscribe to this post and receive updates by e-mail.
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Thanks to Bill H. for the A/D chart on the other thread.
ReplyDeleteIn that same vein, Jason Goepfert who publishes Sentiment Trader, has some intersting statistics: 40%+ of his indicators are now bearish, the same reading took place in early Nov. right before that plunge, but now its even more extreme. His smart money/dumb money indicator is now -50% showing dumb money at 79% confident in a rally and smart money at 29%, that level of difference in the reading has occurred only 4 other times in the past 15 years.Rydex traders have shown an explosion of interest in growth funds versus value funds, recently favoring the former over the latter by nearly 7-to-1. With SPX making a new 52 week high, the 10-day average of the advance/decline figures is barely positive. Since 1962, there have been only 11 other days that meet those criteria.
Not from him, but there is a Spiral Calendar date on Jan. 7th anchored off the July 24, 2002 panic low, which could be either a high or a low. Historically, early january would argue for a high, and there is the possibility for SPX 1309 on Jan. 7th.
Thanks Claudius.
ReplyDeleteThe coming correction should be juicy.
Death to the Bears on this rally today. Sorry guys it is all over.
ReplyDeleteNP.
ReplyDeletealso, Jan 1, 2011 is 666 days from the March 6, '09 low at 666. Early January should be interesting.
Watching 12/26 for next cycle change in stock market! Made a slight error when posting 12/29 as I had a bad data point! As my prior post I also have confluence of this date with in a few days of the cycle date! Moving trailing stops up on SSO to 46.50 and on the March Emini to 124………….also watching TLT for price above 93.05 and March Bonds for possible long entry!
ReplyDeletemarketlive, its critical RIGHT HERE: Lunar eclipse on a new moon (NM = usually a high)on the Winter Solstice, plus 9 squared = 81 points from the 1173 low = 1254
ReplyDeleteIt also seems that the downward trendline on the McClellan Osc. has been pierced and may auger more upside if we close here, 1254. I'm just learning about McClellan Summation Index. I read somewhere once that although T theory had been spotty, "...M. S. has always been right...". Looking at the daily MSI, it sure does diverge and looks a lot like it did in April '10. Can I get a witness?
ReplyDeletemake that FULL MOON LE. I should go take a nap...stayed up trying to see the damn thing.
ReplyDeleteThis might be a worthless bit of information, but it might be significant. You guys are a lot smarter than I am so I will let you decide. As of today the SPX 5Day EMA is 11% above the 200Day EMA. The last time it was at this level was April 21, 2010. If my memory serves me right the 3 months after that were not very pleasant for the Bulls.
ReplyDeleteHOW soon will the Muni DEBACALE reach Market awareness.See and listen to Meridith Whitney; if she has credibility?
ReplyDeletePerma: April 26th was the high at 1219.80, 8 (Fib) TD later on May 6th was the flash crash, printed 1065.79, minus 154.01 from the high, but impossible to get the low or near the low because the HFT's had it moving too fast, but on May 25th, 21 (Fib) TD later it printed 1040.78, net loss of 179.02, just shy of 15%. July low was 1010 but it took about 5 more weeks as a lot of the selling energy was used up in the big "A" wave down. maybe a similar set up, except BIGGER this time, and, sometimes bigger IS better.
ReplyDeleteTLT……..got long TLT at 92.60, as price tested lower sq prior to breaking upper price at 93.05 as posted, where I added! Nice move off support! Latched on to some SSO 46 March Puts, God made me do it!
ReplyDeleteEileen
ReplyDeleteThe muni debacle will start to have an effect when cities start to default with regularity.
Perma
Nice find on the 11%. I don't think there's any question that the next correction will be significant.
Parker and the rest
ReplyDeleteI was not sure which thread was active.. glad I looked here.
Took a look at the SPX 10 minute... looks like this sucker is carving out a raising wedge pattern..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p91932959437&a=218160241
My Momentum Change indicator for the SPX continues to show validate the buy signal generated 12/1.. but there are lots of charts that continue to show me that momentum is likely to change shortly.
I will be ready..but not until momentum changes.
Best to your trading!
Bill
From the 2007 high in the SPX to the November '08 low of 741 the .62 pct fib retracement is 1260. This USD rally has legs and a coorection is due here in equities, if not a significant top.
ReplyDeleteETF Trader
ReplyDeleteThe fact that we recently broke through the 61.8% retrace from the October 07 high to March 09 low confirms what Terry was saying all along -- that this is a confirmed bull market, and not a bear market rally.
I would disagree with this being a bull market! Those that are familiar with Spirals of Growth & Decay or have a general understanding of Elliott Wave Analysis should note that the lows made in July 2010 confirmed a Wave 4, thus the current market rally is a 5th-wave advance within a 10-year Bear Market Cycle.
ReplyDeleteI have looked historically at Fib retraces in a fairly comprehensive manner.
ReplyDeleteMy sense (and it is probabilistic rather than deterministic) is that the most probable pattern when a 61.8% retrace is exceeded is a triangle, especially if the pattern leading up to it is corrective.
The SPX has completed 6 waves from its Mar 2009 lows, and is in its 7th wave (up).
Dropping below the Jul lows will cement a corrective structure (7 waves).
until then - I don't really know whether we are in a triangle or a Wave III up from the Mar 2009 lows.
Parker
ReplyDeleteI have not heard Terry call this a Bull market in any context that did not also lead me to identify this rally of the March, 09 lows as a cyclical Bull Market, as opposed to a Secular Bull market. I thought his comments about his 80 year cycle work and talk of a major depression to follow the end of T 13 was indicative of a Cyclical Bull Market. If fact, after the end of A/D #12, he was talking about the 80 year cycle and the depression that was to follow.
I was as surprised as I am sure he was when he found evidence of the new A/D Bull T #13.
Are you suggesting that he is now saying that we are in a Secular Bull market.. or are you suggesting that the cyclical Bull Market began 3/09 is still on-going?
Inquiring minds and all want to know!
Updated for Weds 12/22 = 48. Note the VO went down today despite prices going up.
ReplyDeleteBillH
What I meant was that most observers back in April-May of 2009 were very distrustful of the rally, and expected us to turn back down and take out 667 at any moment.
Terry was one of the few who believed that we would experience an ~18 month bull market.
I did not mean to imply that Terry (or I) have lost faith in the ~40 year cycle. During this ~20 year period, gold has kicked stocks ass, and will continue to do so for several years.
Whew
ReplyDeletethere for a minute I thought I had missed something!
Bill
Updated for 12/23 at 28
ReplyDelete