S&P futures traded up to 1227 right before the release of the Jobs Report, which was a huge disappointment. Per the household survey, 185K people were added to the working age population, but the employed number actually fell 334K. This means over 500K jobs were lost before "adjustments" (wink wink). Futures immediately dumped to 1213 before recovering to 1220 at the open.
We have traded between 1217 and 1220.5 during the first hour. 1216 is important support, as is 1211.5.
Interestingly, gold shot up on the jobs report, and the dollar faltered. This was due to the fact that a couple of Fed governors said yesterday that QE2 could be suspended early if conditions warranted. Gold immediately sold off yesterday on those statements. In a perverse way, the bleak jobs report has given the market confidence that QE2 will not be cut short any time soon.
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Parker, today is the 4th touch of the 1225 area this month. After four touches of the 1182 area the S&P blasted off (a few days ago). If it does get back up around 1225 that might be the place to go short with tight stop just on the other side - in case the rally continues. But I also agree with your break of 1217 idea. Slightly different entry strategies.
ReplyDeleteHi, sorry, obvioulsy meant 4th touch/check in in the past 34-45 days (not this month). 1225 is providing pretty good resistance. But this pause was expecdted after 2 raging up days.
ReplyDeleteIf Parker's MFI T holds true, we have seen the swing high here in the $SPX and/or SPY.
ReplyDeleteDay session never traded above yesterday's high, so the $1227 is basically irrelevant, as is often the case...
Disappointment to whom? U6 number is at historic highs. Get real.
By the way, still short the SPY...for what it is worth.
ReplyDelete"Get real"? Tone down the attitude, Lakewood. This is not the first time you have taken a personal shot at me or Terry (e.g. "throw everything against the wall and see what sticks").
ReplyDeleteIf it continues, you will be banned. Please state your opinions and back them up without attacking those with whom you disagree.
The jobs report was a disappointment to the market, which had risen to 1227 in anticipation of the number based on mostly good news all week long, particularly the ADP report.
Everyone knows the job situation is bad in historic terms.
agreed with parker. disappoiting should be taken in todays context only. everyone knows it dosen't matter if its 9.6 or 9.4 or 9.8 .. but last one is disappoiting from second on only todays context. I still feel MFT may come true but december null echo may not be much lower than 1173 area ..if its turns down on monday, first asia has to be in red on monday. also if it turns next astro turn date is around 12th which may be mid dec null echo.
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteWait a minute.
These aren't personal attacks. When you post multiple cycle or timing approaches in the span of a week or two at most, i.e. the MFI T for $SPX, the 75 day cycle, the HKVAX signal, the MFI T for currencies, the 4 year cycle, etc. I think it is very fair to question "which one is it?"
It is your sandbox. If you want only a one sided perspective that fits yours, fine.
But don't call me out about being "personal".
As to Terry Laundry, I think I have followed him far longer than you have, and will continue to do so. But to imply that my current perspective that he is getting confusing in the last 6 months as a personal attack is absurd.
Forgive me for entering your world.
Lakewood
ReplyDeleteAll I ask for is courtesy. Just make your point without being insulting.
When there is conflicting data, as there often will be, of course it's fair to ask which one I believe. You didn't ask me that, however.
Instead, you commented "Just throw everything against a wall and see what sticks, right?"
That's insulting. DUCY?
As an aside, would you want me to bury something like the HSKAX indicator that has accurately predicted corrections/crashes 6 times in the last 3 years? Or would you want me to share something like that even if it doesn't quite fit with the Money Flow Ts?
I'm not sure I can win with you no matter what I decided to do.
Personally, I see no harm in bringing all the information to the table and let the participants of this blog digest it.
Agree with Parker.
ReplyDeleteWe are here to discuss various perspectives and to learn from each other.
This is not a paid newsletter which is required to provide single answer.
Where does the line start for those of us willing to pay for premium content?
ReplyDeleteBill
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I understand your comment.
Assuming you mean the green line on the volume oscillator, the green line starts at 134 on June 15, and connects to 124 on July 26, 100 on September 13, 69 on November 1, and now 49 on December 3.
The chart is here:
http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/nextsrtvo20101130pdf.pdf
If you mean "lining up" to subscribe to premium content, this blog is currently free. While I may explore a subscription concept in the future, for now all I ask is for voluntary contributions if you feel you have learned something or otherwise benefited from the blog.