ZeroHedge has an article today about the $TRIN at levels not seen since 1956.
The ARMS Index, of course, is the ratio of Net Advancing Issues to Net Advancing Volume. Jeff commented yesterday about how peculiar it was to see Declining Issues lead 3:2, but Advancing Volume lead the other way at 3:2.
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with bonds selling offie rates rising what is status of terrys confidence chart havnt sseen it in awhile can u advise what it might be doing...thsnks
ReplyDeleteTony
ReplyDeleteYesterday, we officially broke the bearish divergence on the Confidence Index. The CI made a new multi-month high on 12/8.
This confirms the generally bullish forecast for equities and gold into next year.
And it's more evidence that the correction we anticipate to start soon probably won't be a deep low as called for by the nulled echo theory.
Would the unusual volume in Citi skew these numbers(since it was half the volume of the NYSE a few days ago)? I have no idea, just asking. Either way, seems like it is flashing a big sell signal here for a short while at least.
ReplyDeleteGood morning,
ReplyDeleteRegarding breadth, does the divergence in the daily McClellan Summation Index look exactly like it did in April '10 right before the huge decline? More importantly, do technicals even matter when there's such suspected gov't intervention in the markets? Have the buy-and-hold snoozers been vindicated?
Well, you know what I mean: after a while, a $trillion here and a $trillion there starts to add up to real money.
ReplyDeleteI just got a tweet a staffer has e-mailed that the House Democratic caucus just voted to reject the tax deal.
ReplyDeleteWHAT HAPPENED to the 0 to 5 day KSKAX market failure and CRASH warning........It would help if you would follow up on such posts!
ReplyDeletej
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned yesterday:
It produced corrections/crashes 6 times in 3 years, but 3 false positives, and 1 late signal. So it's not foolproof.
Second, the corrections/crashes started within 5 days, so you have a time frame to judge whether the signal is valid or invalid.
It seems some think I should have not disclosed the 6 of 10 signal. I prefer to inform the readers of the blog and allow them to decide for themselves.
I understand!......Tx!..............I missed your comment!
ReplyDeleteI am not trying to criticize or put down any one here. I am just trying to see if I am doing something wrong or missing the point. Looking at the MFTs before April 10, it seems they did not work at least from Mar 09 rally up to that point. I have also tried to use them with various commodities that also didn’t produce any tops or bottoms of significance. The accuracy of the MFT for this last potential peak remains to be seen.
ReplyDeleteTerry’s Ts have also failed in April, August, and November. His chart with all the Ts on them see be a toss up as some just don’t go down while others actually move up after the T expires. If I seeing these correctly, then I don’t see how either method has any predictive ability that is statistically significant or more importantly can be relied upon.
I really do appreciate Terry, Parker, and everyone else for sharing their insight and opening themselves up for the BS that comes with it. It just seems to me that these tools are either really not that effective or that I am missing something in how to use them. Any clarification would be appreciated.
PositionSizing u keep doing what u doing we will decide what to take and leave u doing great work...those who critize are looking for the holy grail of indicators...aint no such thing....thats why its a market somebody is right somebody is wrong plain and simple.....
ReplyDeletenicksmithcal
ReplyDelete1. Looking at a daily Money Flow T on the S&P,
2. Using early March 2009 as a starting point,
3. Using the obvious MFI peaks as center posts
You get the following projected tops:
1. Late December 2009 (actual mid January 2010)
2. Mid April 2010 (actual late April 2010)
3. Mid November 2010 (actual early November 2010)
For a long range projection, that's kind of accuracy is not horrible.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteA million thanks to you and to Terry for sharing your experience, knowledge, and tools. And please try to overlook idiots who insult you or put down your brilliant work, folks who want to be spoon fed buy/sell recos with no due diligence on their part. Keep up your excellent work!
Parker if you are going to continue to delete posts to you satifaction you will continue to lose respect!
ReplyDeleteI don't know why people get so defensive when T-Theory is examined for its predictive ability or lack there of. If this is a scientific methodology it should be able to withstand criticism. If it can't hold up other methods should be explored. It is that simple. If I say the market is going to go up and have sound reasoning well then I take my chances...if I say definitively the market will go down and it does the exact opposite, people are correct in questioning the assumptions of this scientific theory.
ReplyDeleteAnd btw "free advice" can be very very costly.
ReplyDeleteI like the work you are doing Parker, keep it up!!
MARKETLIVE
ReplyDeleteThat is my exact point..........there is no need defensive behavior......it is not a court room..........it either works or not!
j
ReplyDeleteBesides rude comments from mktlive, I have not deleted any posts recently that were not first deleted by their authors.
However, Blogger does have spam protection, and I have noticed that sometimes valid comments will somehow get marked as spam.
I have nothing to do with that process. I will review my spam folder every couple of days and see if I need to publish a valid comment that was unfairly marked as spam.
The other restriction I have on comments is that if you are commenting on a post that is over 2 weeks old, it all gets sent to me for moderation before the comment can be published.
Now I will go check my spam folder.
@nicksmithcal
ReplyDeleteNo, you didn't miss anything. I observed the same back testing result. I think there may be a problem with N being too small.
Parker Please - keep reporting so we can decide! lol
ReplyDeletethis indicator signals anywhere to 1 month to 3 months in advance - usually a month or so.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHLR:$NAHLR&p=D&yr=3&mn=11&dy=2&id=p45858011653&a=210744658
1.32 on Euro needs to break if we are going to pullback
Now, at least we are getting somewhere..this is just healthy debate and discussion imo.
ReplyDeletethanks parker for keeping this forum open to intelligent posters.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteI am interested in learning more about how you personally approach/calculate "position sizing". Please direct me to whatever sources (postings, etc) you may have that includes examples.
Thanks!
Thanks for the clarification, Parker. I dont think I was going out long enough for the MFTs. Some of the MFTs are advertised as accurate to the day but perhaps those expectations should be +/- a std dev or less.
ReplyDeleteI do appreciate you being less sensitive than some your readers who view any criticism or clarfication of your work as a personal attack. I am just trying to understand the parameters of your work better.
I have now checked my spam folder, and there is a comment in there from j responding to Mark that's not very cordial. So I will not publish it.
ReplyDeleteWeirdly, Mark's original comment is also in my spam folder. I thought I had seen Mark's comment already published. The Blogger spam folder works in mysterious ways.
Once again, please everyone all I ask for is courtesy. You can disagree with me, Terry, and each other, but personal attacks will not be tolerated.
State your opinions, back them up, but lay off the insults. I WILL delete attack comments at my discretion.
seem next week could be real interesting if dems have now refused to vote on this tax package seems al lot of sell tix are still sitting there also seems i read that folks would have till 12/20 before thaey have to sell that leaves about 6 trading days and triple witch week which is next week so if things really get going south in dc next week could go south as evryone looks to lock in lower cap gains rates...just a thought not a prediction
ReplyDelete@SC
ReplyDeletehave you been able to find any adjustments or other time periods which make them more effective?
Timing the next cycle High
ReplyDeleteWith new closing highs that comes along with all kind of bearish divergences everywhere, we need to be alert for a High forming at any time, but when exactly?
Precise Timing is going to be critical. Once the Highs are in, we should see a relative sharp correction afterward.
These Change in Trends (CIT) tend to be exact,sometimes +/- 1 TD, although they work 70-80% of the time, so take the following fwiw.
The Dollar CIT is today 12/9, the Solar CIT is 12/9 is for the stock markets. The SPX itself has a 12/10-13 CIT. These next few days are a critical Time period to watch for the markets.
As mentioned in my previous post, even though there were many reasons for a 12/7/10 High (see December 7th post), my Master Cycle and Major cycle are the dominant Cycles to watch at the moment and are currently expecting higher Highs.
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
Achilles
ReplyDeleteGenerally, I like to risk no more than 2% on any trade. So when I take a position, I put my stop loss where if I get taken out of the trade, I don't lose more than 2% of my portfolio.
As it turns out, if you invest 100% of your portfolio in one position, then your stop loss on that position is also 2%
Example:
$100K portfolio
$2K = 2%
Stock Price = $25
Max purchase (cash no margin) = 4000 shares
Stop loss = 50 cents (* 4000 shares = $2K risk)
50 cents/$25 is also 2%.
If you invested half your portfolio in the position (2000 shares), you can have twice as wide a stop loss (in this case $1), and still only risk 2% of portfolio on the trade.
So there is a mathematical relationship between between max risk, size of position, and width of stop loss placement.
Cool chart, Scott! Thanks.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteLook further back
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHLR:$NAHLR&p=D&st=1997-1-09&en=(today)&id=p04772341922&a=210744658
I believe this is a common problem of N=too small.
If you look at recent history, that indicator has worked. But examine more data points, you realize that when it worked, it worked great. When it didn'tork, it was an absolute disaster.
When doing research it is important to be absolutely honest with yourself. Human nature has a tendency to only want to see what our hearts want us to see. The market is a very harsh place to discover how honest you are with yourself. ( I am speaking generally and not directing this at anyone.)
Good luck to all.
Market in topping action. This is normal. All models have errors. All the ingredients for a spill are in place. The only thing missing is tape action. I am seeing the first stage of the tapeaction, ie Chinese equity cracking. Next to go, idealy, should be base metals. Then the chicken come home to roost, with gusto.
If it doesn't unfold in these stages, then the correction is most likely a ho-hum one, with the bigger spill further out.
Time and Cycles - I like your work here and at your blog. Question: when does your master cycle peak? Could it peak in Feb or March of next year? That would make a correction now, then up into the Spring as Parker has predicted a valid concept?
ReplyDeleteHunt,
ReplyDeleteThe Master Cycle can fade at anytime, so take it fwiw, but yes it sees a peak in January and March next year and another High later on.
Rajacar
Parker - right back at ya!
ReplyDelete@nicksmithcal
ReplyDeleteNo. I use my own toolset. When I come across a new tool, I would look at how it did historically. Did that with TT, CI, and MFT. I added a modified CI to my toolset but not the other two.
Regarding CI, I found that if you just plot a moving average of FAGIX w/o adding in the treasuries, it works better. Others may disagree. Whatever works for ya.
One of my posts is missing. I would like to know if it was deleted on purpose.
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeleteI have not deleted any of your posts. I will check the spam folder.
SC
ReplyDeleteI found your post in the spam folder, and published it.
Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
...tlt is showing signs of life
ReplyDeletebond bottom bounce!?
We hit the Apex of the triangle at 11.55 Low
ReplyDeletemarketlive
ReplyDeleteYou are approaching markets as if they were governed by science and mathematics. What you need to understand is that markets are governed by PSYCHOLOGY of the masses, which is imprecise. The best one can do is approach them with statistics, which chart indicators try to measure. Emotional human behavior is neither exact nor precise. If you approach markets with statistical probability for success, you will do better.
Parker and all the rest
ReplyDeleteI have been out all day, helping a friend take down a huge Oak tree, saw it up in little pieces and tomorrow, we will split it with a hydraulic splitter, and hopefully, he can sell it.. should be about $2000 worth of firewood, which will help make his holiday season merrier.
So I have missed out on all this wonderful stuff going on here.
I am reminded of something an old TA guy used to say... "the reason charts and TA work is because markets and market participants have memories. All the chart does is display that memory as a graph."
I have been thinking the reason so many folks, including myself, who are interested in TA are having problems is because the markets have no memory of the kind of price manipulation that is being conducted by the Fed and the big investment banks. It may be that we will continue to have trouble reading the "memory" until the Fed and the big Broker/Dealers step aside, or are somehow forced out.
Best to your Trading!
Bill
Looks like 5 waves up in the SnP!
ReplyDelete