Kind Words from Terry Laundry, Founder of T Theory

"Parker has sent me what I consider to be the most important refinements to T Theory I have ever received from anyone in an e-mail . . . which he calls Tweaking the 13th Advance Decline T." September 29, 2010

"Parker has sent me a very interesting concept which is the NY Advance Decline line divided by the put-call ratio . . . What he's done is introduce the idea of sentiment." September 15, 2010

"Parker discovered the Money Flow Ts . . . This is something like the Holy Grail in T Theory. You are always looking for something that will help you refine the peak date." October 17, 201

"Money Flow Ts are probably the greatest new thing I have seen in 20 years in terms of time symmetries." December 5, 2010.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

$$ Fed Z1 Report

Total Credit Market Debt (TCMD) = $52.281T.  This is deflationary since Q4 2008 at $52.435T.

The two largest segments of TCMD are Household and Financial.  They have both contracted for 7 straight quarters, shedding/defaulting/writing off a combined $3.1T in debt in the process.  

The Federal Government is now the 3rd largest debtor, having increased its debt by $2.7T in the last 7 quarters in an effort to offset the deflationary forces from the contracting Household and Financial sectors.

Since Q4 2005, Federal Government debt has nearly doubled ($4.7T to S9.0T). In other words, our government has incurred nearly as much debt in the last five years as it did from 1776 to 2005. If this keeps up, our debt will be 100% of GDP within a few years. 
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13 comments:

  1. marketliveDecember 9, 2010 at 12:50 PM

    Our Federal Debt is already at around 100% of GDP.

    http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. PositionSizingDecember 9, 2010 at 1:12 PM

    The $9.0T is Public Debt. Your number of $13T+ includes "Inter-governmental debt."

    ReplyDelete
  3. marketliveDecember 9, 2010 at 2:01 PM

    Don't forget the right side of the Fed's Balance Sheet. Where do they get the $ from to buy the Treasuries debt?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Raj Time and CyclesDecember 9, 2010 at 2:11 PM

    Shorter term: Apex of triangle Low


    Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 12/09/10: 11.50Apex, 1.15 pm Eastern

    Actual: 11.55 Low of the day, 1.15 was a High

    5 min Chart: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OSfvk1xrysQ/TQE1ZCEsEiI/AAAAAAAAF9k/8NbZ7tfx8hg/s1600/5+min+SPU.gif

    We hit the Apex of the triangle at 11.55 Low of the Day...

    http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  5. PositionSizingDecember 9, 2010 at 2:22 PM

    Thanks Raj

    What should we be watching for on that chart?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Raj Time and CyclesDecember 9, 2010 at 2:26 PM

    Hi Parker,

    The chart suggests we should continue to rally short term as the Apex of the triangle was today's Low of the Day.

    There is a cluster of CITs between 12/9 and 12/13 that should be an important turning point.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Trader EddieDecember 9, 2010 at 2:41 PM

    Thank you for great work.
    What EFT or other I should use for Money Flow T for crude oil?
    Trader Eddie

    ReplyDelete
  8. ETFtraderDecember 9, 2010 at 3:33 PM

    The Fed ever since the dot.com bust has tried to target equity prices to offset the decline of manufacturing and wages in this country.The so-called wealth effect has brought household rates up,but nowhere near there 2007 levels.

    There's a possibility of a EDT forming in the ES.F and also the $VLE has a asceding triangle at the 2800 level. Could signal a top tomorrow or Monday. The Dow cash has a complex H&S pattern. The trin was .49 today and the ISEE index printed 500+ this morning. I see those as bearish.

    ReplyDelete
  9. mkt_roninDecember 9, 2010 at 4:28 PM

    It's a lot worse than the numbers quoted. Radio host and Constitutional Scholar Mark Levin has stated that the entire net worth of America (as in all kinds of federal and private assets) is $65 trillion. Adding in unfunded debt coming due as well as city, state, federal, and private pensions and bonds and the debt is $115 trillion and we are already insolvent but are playing a shell game. I keep thinking that we are seeing desperate, illegal, and foolish measures because Bernanke knows that the Great Depression wasn't caused by stock prices dropping. It was a debt implosion that then dropped prices and caused massive asset wipe out. This far exceeds the South Sea Bubble and is the greatest bubble in recorded history. A few economists I know (PhDs and not MBAs or journalists who fraudulently call themselves economists) who do not work for firms selling stocks say it's just a question of when this ends badly. I hate to state this, but as poor a science economics might be, and having part of my masters in it, pipers always get paid. And it is well beyond impossible to grow our way out of this. Hussman had a graph a month ago showing that whether it be QE2 or QE99, the more money added to a system like this has an almost direct correlation in the slowing of the velocity of money. The term usually used is "pushing on a string".

    ReplyDelete
  10. rjoDecember 9, 2010 at 4:45 PM

    2:1 leverage?? that's all?

    hey i was more levered than that when I was 20 and things turned out all right : )

    ReplyDelete
  11. PositionSizingDecember 9, 2010 at 5:22 PM

    Great stuff, Steve.

    Eddie -

    The oil ETFs suck so badly, I would use OIH or XLE. At least their price patterns match WTIC better.

    ReplyDelete
  12. JerryDecember 9, 2010 at 11:31 PM

    Froth 1173 Spx
    http://trendsby3.blogspot.com/

    Thanks Parker will add your blog to my friends.
    Jerry

    ReplyDelete
  13. JerryDecember 9, 2010 at 11:32 PM

    oops Correction 1263

    ReplyDelete

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