Kind Words from Terry Laundry, Founder of T Theory
"Parker has sent me what I consider to be the most important refinements to T Theory I have ever received from anyone in an e-mail . . . which he calls Tweaking the 13th Advance Decline T." September 29, 2010
"Parker has sent me a very interesting concept which is the NY Advance Decline line divided by the put-call ratio . . . What he's done is introduce the idea of sentiment." September 15, 2010
"Parker discovered the Money Flow Ts . . . This is something like the Holy Grail in T Theory. You are always looking for something that will help you refine the peak date." October 17, 201
"Money Flow Ts are probably the greatest new thing I have seen in 20 years in terms of time symmetries." December 5, 2010.
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Sell the news at the 9:30 EST open, or does it get to 1245 first. Anyone know the best way to spot a gap up open that fails (i.e. June 21).
ReplyDeleteAlso, the last 4 gap up opens did not trade down more than 2 points from their gap up open (11/04, 11/18, 11/24, and 12/1). All 4 of these gap up opens traded up about 10-11 points from that open as their high for the day...so the upside should be capped 10-11 points from the open today.
In my experience, huge gap-up only fails when it is driven by pit locals getting long. On the other hand, if we see huge gap-up with large institutional orders behind it, there is not much chance of a failure. Also, you look at whether gap is outside the previous day's range or not. if it is out of the previous day's range, the chance of gap filling is pretty small. ES has gapped up huge today, and based on the statistics I keep for similar gap size, there is only 2 out 13 chances that gap will be filled today.
ReplyDelete1232-33 seems to be the key. Opening above that level will likely mean a gap and go.
ReplyDeleteOpening below that level probably means a retrace to ~1222-23 before moving higher, with a long trend failure if we trade below 1220.
So basically you are abandoning your mfi top but not going long since there is no oversold condition correct?
ReplyDeleteTerry has a special update. New Short Range T has started an advance into mid January.
ReplyDeleterjo
ReplyDeleteI'm analyzing the market in terms of the short position I have on. I am trying to determine if we have a "gap and go" and therefore let my stop loss take me out of my short trade, or whether we should anticipate a retrace in which event I will suspend the stop loss and hope to get out at ~1223.
I am not abandoning anything. The Money Flow T on the S&P shows a peak on December 8. I tried to refine it with a 30M chart, which showed a top at the close of December 6 or open of December 7. My refinement may not work, but that doesn't mean I am changing horses in mid-stream.
If I am stopped out of my trade today, I stand ready to re-initiate a short position should conditions warrant.
That means Terry gave up idea of null echo in mid december now.
ReplyDeletemarketlive
ReplyDeleteCan you write one single comment without including an insult?
Thanks Parker...obviously I wrote that question before seeing ferris update...appreciate all the work you do especially since it's so unique
ReplyDeleteTerry not ferris lol sorry typed the last msg from my iPhone
ReplyDeleteOn Cycle watch: 12/7 High?
ReplyDeleteAs mentioned in my previous 12/2 post, the Master Cycle is active again with 5 Hits and was looking for higher Highs above the 11/5 Highs, which has now occurred. So what's next?
There are 2 dominant Cycle that I am watching, one is my Master cycle that has us generally higher into January and March 2011, before a larger correction takes place. The other is the Major cycle that has been in the market for the last 6 months and is due top out soon. It will be interesting to see which one is more dominant.
There is one very long term cycle I mentioned on the T&C forums and elsewhere that tops out today, 12/7/10.
I don't think this is the dominant Cycle right now, so here it is:
The 29,455 CD Cycle:
1. 09/03/29 Major High = 04/26/10 High
2. 11/13/29 Major Low = 07/06/10 Low (Actual 07/01/10L)
3. 04/16/30 Major High = 12/07/10 High
We will see if this one works or not, the current bias is the Master Cycle will be correct and we see higher Prices into next year.
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
Parker
ReplyDeleteI spent a little time this week end looking at the charts of the A/D T's that Terry displayed on Sunday. I notice there are a couple of times when the market, as measured by the S&P, did not immediately collapse at the right end of a T. it even looks like there were periods of a year or more, that extended as "flat", before finally rolling over.
There has recently been a lot of angst over the fact that the market has not "crashed" as some, or even many expected. In fact, I am one of those. I am much more content when things work out the way I expected.
But then, I remember buying the FAGIX at $5.05 in April, 09, with the investment account and selling it at $8.87 in April, 2010. In addition, collecting about $.62 per share in interest checks. Then I recall moving that money VFITX in April at $11.01, which is today at $11.78, and collecting another $.10 in interest checks.
This is called a gratitude list.....just where is the complaint? It can't possibly be that I have not had a loss! What I am doing now is managing the trading account, having generated some very profitable trades since May, and recently stumbling around a little, confused and disappointed, but still in the game.
I, for the life of me, can not understand the hostility and anger that has been expressed here that somehow T theory has failed. For Who? Not me. I still study T theory,l and love the new MFI T's, but frankly they are guides, not written in stone. It is becoming clear that we are in a volatile trading range, and I will rely on Momentum changes to guide new trades. While the investment capital is all warm and cozy, safe and sound, in the short term government bond bond. Waiting for the next A/D T to come around.
Bill