Kind Words from Terry Laundry, Founder of T Theory

"Parker has sent me what I consider to be the most important refinements to T Theory I have ever received from anyone in an e-mail . . . which he calls Tweaking the 13th Advance Decline T." September 29, 2010

"Parker has sent me a very interesting concept which is the NY Advance Decline line divided by the put-call ratio . . . What he's done is introduce the idea of sentiment." September 15, 2010

"Parker discovered the Money Flow Ts . . . This is something like the Holy Grail in T Theory. You are always looking for something that will help you refine the peak date." October 17, 201

"Money Flow Ts are probably the greatest new thing I have seen in 20 years in terms of time symmetries." December 5, 2010.

Friday, December 3, 2010

$$ Refining the Daily S&P Money Flow T

We know the daily MFT projects a December 8 end to the current up move in the S&P.  Then again, daily MFTs are sometimes imprecise. 

So I have dug down to smaller time frames to see if we can refine the forecast.  I found nothing on the hourly, but when I looked at the 30 minute chart of SPY, it forecasts an end to the up move at about the close of December 6 or open of December 7:















This time frame is confirmed if we look at a 15 minute chart of the Dollar, which suggests that  temporary Dollar weakness should end on the afternoon of December 6.  Recall that: 1) stocks are trading inversely with the dollar, and 2) the hourly Dollar chart shows a Money Flow top on December 17-20:

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23 comments:

  1. UnknownDecember 3, 2010 at 12:19 PM

    I've been following you and Terry for about 6 weeks now and reviewing all your information and techniques - thank you for your efforts in trying to simplify and turn down the noise of this manipulated and decaying old world Weltanschauung that the cabal refuses to let go of.

    The T's are a great addtion to my overall technical perspective and have allowed me to see the intermediate patterns clearer.

    Thanks to you and Terry for your exploration and free sharing of these techniques...

    Into the selling climax we go???

    Peace - Scott

    ReplyDelete
  2. marketliveDecember 3, 2010 at 12:21 PM

    Why do you and Terry always go up and out to the right? The way Terry said this would go down is not even close. Now, he is saying gold is a bubble, yet it continues to be strong and going higher...

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  3. PositionSizingDecember 3, 2010 at 12:28 PM

    Marketlive

    I don't get what you mean "up and out to the right"? Please elaborate.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The HookDecember 3, 2010 at 1:07 PM

    Parker do you have a money flow T view on SLV? Many thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  5. YashDecember 3, 2010 at 1:13 PM

    parker on above chart there is one overbought MF on extreme left side of chart. I think around 5th nov peak .. what will be T with that as centerpost or there can't be T with that as centerpost?

    ReplyDelete
  6. UnknownDecember 3, 2010 at 1:16 PM

    Parker, regarding your earlier post regarding going short under 1216, if the senate votes (I believe they're voting tomorrow) to extend the tax cuts for the middle class the market could gap up Monday. Not voting for it in this climate would be political suicide, espeically given today's jobs numbers.

    I'd like to short too but am worried about a Monday gap up/continuation. I try to stay away from news moves when trading. Your more sensitive MFT indicating the 7th might make a late Monday short more reasonable? Thoughts?

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  7. YashDecember 3, 2010 at 1:19 PM

    what is mfi setting .. 10? 14? as i am not getting same overbougt level on 30 min chart as your picture says.

    ReplyDelete
  8. PositionSizingDecember 3, 2010 at 1:36 PM

    Yash

    The setting is 14 periods. Regarding the MFI peak on 11/5, unfortunately Stockcharts only goes back 1 month on 30 minute charts. Impossible for me to see if that MFI peak is a center post on this particular chart.

    Hunt

    Yes. I deleted that language about going short under 1216 for that reason. I will wait to see how the market fares Monday afternoon before making a decision. There is no domestic economic news on Tuesday. A sell off starting Tuesday might originate in the Eurozone overnight.

    The Hook

    The 1H GLD and 30M SLV Money Flow Ts show an end to the up move either at the close of December 10 or the open of December 13.

    ReplyDelete
  9. PositionSizingDecember 3, 2010 at 1:41 PM

    Yash

    I stand corrected. I can go back more than 30 days on 30 minute charts. That must have recently changed.

    ReplyDelete
  10. marketliveDecember 3, 2010 at 1:48 PM

    Up and to the right means how Terry has drawn his "Magic T's" the past few years when his predictions turn out to be wrong. I like your approach though it is systematic yet a bit more flexible in approach.

    ReplyDelete
  11. YashDecember 3, 2010 at 1:53 PM

    in fidelity 30 min chart spy mfi(14) on 11/26 is around 65 and not 80 as shown in your chart. and then it touched 80 yesterday which is again not as per your chart. so seems there may be differtnt readings in different sites.

    ReplyDelete
  12. onegoalDecember 3, 2010 at 2:02 PM

    A predicted high early 12-7 might give us a "turnaround tuesday", haven't seen one of those in a while...

    ReplyDelete
  13. UnknownDecember 3, 2010 at 2:08 PM

    Parker, thanks. Agreed. One of the tools I use is market profile trader and, although there is only an hour left in the day session, I can tell you today's profile needs some work work on the lower side, just below 1215.75.

    ReplyDelete
  14. marketliveDecember 3, 2010 at 2:31 PM

    I seriously can't wait to hear (for a few minutes at least) Terry stutter and rationalize the market and gold's strength this Sunday.

    ReplyDelete
  15. FibocycleDecember 3, 2010 at 2:47 PM

    cool agrees with my stuff: http://mysquigglylines.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousDecember 3, 2010 at 2:48 PM

    "The 1H GLD and 30M SLV Money Flow Ts show an end to the up move either at the close of December 10 or the open of December 13" Parker so the Gold MFT has changed slightly?

    ReplyDelete
  17. marketliveDecember 3, 2010 at 2:52 PM

    Nasdaq and Gold are melting up. Nenner is right like 70% vs Laundry about 20%. You are following the wrong guy.

    ReplyDelete
  18. JosephDecember 3, 2010 at 3:11 PM

    Parker, It appears to me that in your 30min SPY chart, you simply used the peak of the MFI - even though price action and MFI did not diverge after the peak (they both turned south). Have you determined that you don't need a divergence when locating intraday MFI centerposts? Or am I misinterpreting something here?

    Thanks for all you do in this blog.

    joe

    ReplyDelete
  19. UnknownDecember 3, 2010 at 3:13 PM

    Sunspots vs T's!!!

    Tuesday we will see what happens

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  20. PositionSizingDecember 3, 2010 at 3:13 PM

    Rodd

    Yes - the shorter time frames are suggesting that the gold MFT ends on the afternoon of December 10 instead of December 7.

    ReplyDelete
  21. PositionSizingDecember 3, 2010 at 3:17 PM

    Joe

    Yes - the center post goes at the MFI peak. We know there was divergence because on December 1, price made a higher high than the day of the MFI peak, but MFI was lower than it was on the MFI peak day.

    Sometimes, you don't know if you have a Money Flow T until days or weeks after a MFI peak. It is price breaking to new highs while the MFI is below the old MFI peak which alerts you to the existence of the Money Flow T.

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  22. JosephDecember 3, 2010 at 3:41 PM

    Parker, thanks for the clarification. I was definitely considering only the first few ticks after the MFI peak to locate divergences for center posts. You have cleared up much for me. Thanks again.

    joe

    ReplyDelete
  23. BoscoDecember 3, 2010 at 11:19 PM

    Marketlive,

    Terry said Gold has a long T. I don't think he uses the word bubble.

    ReplyDelete

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