The daily pivot is 1231.50, with S1 at 1227.95 and R1 at 1235.75.
Halfway back from yesterday's lows to today's highs is 1227.81, which is quite close to the first pivot support level at 1227.95. This will be a key area to watch today. If it holds, I would not recommend a new short position.
However, if it fails and we take out 1226.10 (the 61.8% retrace from yesterday's lows to today's highs, then we have a potential trend reversal.
Halfway back from yesterday's lows to today's highs is 1227.81, which is quite close to the first pivot support level at 1227.95. This will be a key area to watch today. If it holds, I would not recommend a new short position.
However, if it fails and we take out 1226.10 (the 61.8% retrace from yesterday's lows to today's highs, then we have a potential trend reversal.
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Posts
Parker
ReplyDeleteOn Nov 8 you talked about the 61.8% fib retrace from the 09 lows. We are still there(1228ish) and today it seems (along with a resilient dollar) to be holding price in check.
The anounced POMO schedule ends Thursday and tomorrow is POMO lite with only 2 billion (ONLY!lol)max for Brian Sack to play with...
You mentioned in you Nov 8 post that a blow of top was likely - could today be the making of that with the breakouts above the 61.8% retrace and then the fade?
PS - as I write, USD is going green.
hell - the one thing bullish that is very bullish is volume on the financial stocks - C is experiencing HUGE volume this morning - even CAT is 140% of normal volume
ReplyDeleteGold Gerb psted a DRYS chart yesterday that seems to be in play. He said a top should be in and today we are down 2.4% on it...
ReplyDeleteGold Gerb - can you tell me how you picked the price bottom for your left post on the t?
USD - come on baby light my fire!
ReplyDeletecool.....the transports have reached their geometric harmonic time-price zone--a reversal here would be most interesting.
ReplyDeletefibo - agreed, I was a bit nicked by panic this morning but things are looking very interesting
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteHoly cow. The intraday mfi procedure which called for a top this morning shows real promise. A huge gap up this morning and then a pullback now under way. Zowie. Good work.
joe
Scott, for Citigroup, the government sold the last of it's common shares the other day, if I heard right, that's why they're up, less government on their back.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
ReplyDeletewow - at one point the C volume was up to 1300% of average!
it's still up at about 750% of average
ugh
ReplyDeleteMerlin http://chartsedge.com/images/120610.gif also has a 12/7 high as one of my cycles have, mentioned in Parker's previous post.
ReplyDeleteAlso VIX is at Long term Support. Today is an important cycles day
$NYHLR:$NAHLR ratio is showing a top is in or soon in. this indicator is always about a month early and it had a bearish cross about a month ago
ReplyDeleteterry just posted this:
ReplyDeleteSpecial Update Tuesday morning Dec 7
It appears the new Short Range T has started an advance into mid January as a minimum.
Will post details after todays close.
I don't see how the market will rally to mid january if USD keeps rallying here - also TLT looks to be bottoming out in the T time frame -
ReplyDeleteTLT bottom, SPX top?
I feel like the sound of one hand clapping here today! any imput along the Terry special update would be appreciated!
ReplyDeleteThere are plenty of reasons for a Top here:
ReplyDelete1. 29,455 suggests 12/7 cycle Major high.
2. VIX is at long term support
3. Merlin has today as a High
4. Parker has today as the MFI High
5. Al's Xtides has a High today as well
BUT the dominant cycles are suggesting higher, so we'll see, which will be correct.
Merlin?
ReplyDeleteMerlin Neural net
ReplyDeletehttp://chartsedge.com
http://chartsedge.com/images/120610.gif
USD! I gonna have a heart attack today!
ReplyDeleteand a stroke!
ReplyDeleteSeeing Scott meltdown since this morning has been quite interesting.
ReplyDeleteFractal
ReplyDeleteIt's entertaining for me too!
oh, but you said interesting, not entertaining!
I'm just another fractured fractal!
For reasons unknown to me, the market, such as the spy etf, tends to follow the 30 min ratio of slv to gld - at least in recent months. This ratio took a plunge today, Tuesday, and it may herald a market correction.
ReplyDeleteHere is a link to a chart: stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV:GLD&p=30&b=2&g=0&id=p79673454758&a=207794338
joe
joe - great chart - THANKS!
ReplyDelete"Gold Gerb - can you tell me how you picked the price bottom for your left post on the t?"
ReplyDeleteFollowing PositionSizing video, pick the lowest MFI reading, if there is an area instead of a point..pick the leftest most. DRYS closed -3%, tomorrow shall be interesting! (I have no position/bias).
-GG
Joe
ReplyDeleteI don't see a whole lot of correlation! what am I missing?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV:GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56298780773
Bill
Hey no matter what happens I want to thank Parker for his vibe. Sharing is caring. That's the bottom line.
ReplyDeleteThanks Parker for sharing your info. Your MFI T gave some clues to where to take some profits, as well as other indicators. For those looking at any system as the Holy Grail it's just not there. You have to know when to put risk on and take it off. I think we may have another run up after a little consolidation here. For those always looking to go short and too nervous to go long, you have been fighting the trend. The long term trend is up until confirmed down.
ReplyDeleteJimDC
Bill, the slv/gld ratio idea is from Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors. He has a great track record; so, I tend to explore his ideas. He thinks the ratio is a sign of liquidity moving in and out of the market. I think since August the relationship has been strong and clear and has kept me looking for more upside in the market even when I thought it was supported by poor volume, etc..
ReplyDeletejoe
Joe
ReplyDeleteI have seen the theory regarding this silver/gold ratio before, but I could not see a correlation then, and I can't see one now....
but then what the heck do I know.. and thanks for the idea.... keep them coming.
Bill