Looks like the daily Gold Money Flow T was right on.
The S&P is down 15 points since yesterday's highs.
We'll see what kind of follow through we get.
We'll see what kind of follow through we get.
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Tourism Eastern Townships | Québec, Canada
5 hours ago
Yes, great call on the Gold Parker! Thank you very much:-)
ReplyDeleteFurther downside on the S&P? 1220 looks pretty important.
ReplyDeleteWell, yesterday was the first time the cash traded the 61.8% and the exact T13 end date.
ReplyDeleteIt's quite uncanny to hit price and time targets on the same day.
absolutely Parker -
ReplyDeletegold seemed to be take the lead to the downside yesterday, albeit somewhat divergently.
futures last night were down alot but healed by the open.
thanks again for yesterday's update - great info and review!
only a 2 billion POMO today (Only!@) -
Parker,
ReplyDeleteYou might want to check http://highplainstrade.blogspot.com
It seems that HPT decided to yet again mock something that he does not know. He posted on TTW that on his site he has a posting, and then asked people not to write on TTW about it. The guy is delusional as to his knowledge and ability. To my knowledge, no one has ever seen a T chart from him. Now, he is an expert.He is "sure" any correlation with money flow will soon end.
Steve
Nice call on the gold. Anyone else think that equities might be threatening to break to the upside here?
ReplyDeleteI'm watch BKX at the 200MA
ReplyDeleteit's failed a few times at around 48 and broke out this morning
if bkx fails or pulls back hard then I think the indexes fall but if it can break out above the 200MA...?
Steve
ReplyDeleteThanks for the heads up on HPT. To each his own.
I don't have time for haters who get short too early and want to blame someone else.
Life moves on.
Looks like we are greasing the skids for the sell-off we have all been anticipating.
ReplyDeleteAfter the Arms warning of 5 consecutive days,
today marks the 4th day MA(5) $TRIN has been negative, and the 5th day that MA(10) $TRIN has been negative. I take the negative readings of MA(5) and MA(10) $TRIN relatively rare.
http://pragcap.com/ireland-iceland-and-letting-banks-fail
ReplyDelete“The difference is that in Iceland we allowed the banks to fail… These were private banks and we didn’t pump money into them in order to keep them going; the state did not shoulder the responsibility of the failed private banks….How far can we ask ordinary people — farmers and fishermen and teachers and doctors and nurses — to shoulder the responsibility of failed private banks….That question, which has been at the core of the Icesave issue, will now be the burning issue in many European countries.”
Good point on the BKX Scott.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I've been tracking it in real time with ExactPrice today. Looks like the stop came in near $1,370.00. Typical of reaching a new high though so I expect it to turn around and go past that high eventually. I won't be surprised if we hit $1,500 but year end of the year or beginning of 2011.
ReplyDeleteParker, Bill, and Fellow Traders,
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, good blog and kudos on all the nice comments from Terry and others.
I feel compelled to share at this critical juncture. I’ve been following T theory since reading about Marty Schwartz in Market Wizards and Pit Bull years ago. I lost good money November ’09 when market did not decline as was suggested by T theory. Instead, Buffet bought Burlington Northern and took the whole market up. I Got revenge in Feb. ’10 when T theory said market would hit lower envelope and reverse. It did. I had gotten long as hell and thus experienced trader nirvana. I lost all I had gained and then some this past August waiting for end of T 13 that did not happen. Covered shorts last week from another miscue dating back to October when market shrugged off another piercing of the top envelope. Now, I lay in wait, hoping to get short for supposed massive decline expected scheduled for around 12/8. How many times has this been postponed?
I have suspected throughout this bewilderment that the Fed’s actions have taken the declines off the table, so I agree with Bill in one of his recent posts. Moreover, I also suspect that inverse ETF’s are wreaking havoc with the VO because what’s up for them is down for the rest of the market. Perhaps the long ETF’s offset short ones though which makes this a wash. Regarding T theory’s cash build-up line, it seems that as the Fed keeps injecting cash ( $15 billion or so a day in Chicago’s treasury auctions) the center posts of the T’s just keep getting deferred, maybe indefinitely, until QE is over. Maybe this is where the MFI T’s can be helpful though.
If a decline of significant enough magnitude to put us into a depression is overdue along with the end of T13, then the Fed has no choice but to continue to forestall it with its dual mandate of both fighting deflation and unemployment. Both are reasons for the Fed to act decisively. Bernanke is a student of the great depression and so far has prevented another one. It’s been said that you don’t “fight the Fed”, perhaps especially not one as creative and determined as this one, one with an endless supply of dry powder the resolve to use it, AND allies in the central banks around the globe. Perhaps only opportunistic bears wanting to profit from a decline are the only ones rooting against the Fed and praying for a breathtaking decline. But even with more equity in the account, life would still be worse than today for the well-off in a depression. The possible anarchy that might ensue would offset the perceived benefit to the bears. If the top is supposed to be now, today, 2/8, and the bottom around12/18, this doesn’t seem like enough time to augur in a depression anyway. And wouldn’t we be looking for the market to stabilize and reverse somewhere around the lower channel envelope of 1111 on the S&P?
What do you think?
bkx is looking strong - but there is a down channel on DOW and SPX that has yet to be broken
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p67718848436&a=204027079
also seem to be getting a bull flag on the 60 min UUP
ReplyDeleteScott, I see your flag on UUP but it's the breakaway on the BKX that seems more important.
ReplyDeleteagree forward BKX has me worried but it might be the FED TICKLE that goes on just long enough to make you cry instead of laugh!
ReplyDeleteif it's going to pullback should start in 30 minutes or so...
one thing is the RUT is looking weak and is holding a down channel as well
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&id=p29005310703&a=204786618
Scott, thanks for the reminder on the RUT. That's the one that has taken my head off recently. If you look at its daily, it seems to be already up and away. Of course if it ends today here, 766, it would look like a nice doji or evening star that could suggest a reversal. Elder Ray daily showing down on it.
ReplyDeleteBKX has an inverse Money Flow T suggesting it will remain weak through December 15.
ReplyDeleteI should say RKH as a proxy for BKX. Sorry
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteUnderstood as to not wasting time. I've been a long-time proponent of telling people who slam someone behind their back that they should tell them and not me. He could have come here and discussed it. Instead, his MO is to slam everyone and anyone who he can. He should run for a position in local politic. They love being sanctimonious and slamming others. But in this case, it's comical as he really doesn't know much.
Steve
Interesting, to say the least, that you have gold topping and shares not. They are both risk on trades, at least where the paper proxies for gold are concerned. What's the forecast low in time for gold?
ReplyDeleteThanks Parker. What's word on XLF? Regionals may be lagging the big boys. Maybe the insiders there know something we don't. They're strong as hell with tech.
ReplyDeleteAlso, doesn't a steepening yield curve help the net interest margin of the financials? Yields are way up and this may be encouraging the banks.
ReplyDeleteIt be looking muscular for the moment!
ReplyDeletefedroids will put meat on the skeleton!
Scott, how's that pullback in $BKX coming? Are you still salivating?
ReplyDeleteEdwardo
ReplyDeleteI did have gold topping 12/7 and shares topping 12/8
Forward
The 2s through 30s are flattening, with 2s increasing yield the most since early November.
I been salivating soooo long I've got sand in my mouth!
ReplyDeleteI think it holds up today unless the USD can get back above 80
Thanks Edwardo. So we don't have a steepening yield curve? What could explain the strength in banks?
ReplyDeleteSO GUYS is the move down in price of tlt just short range or does it extend to Feb.?
ReplyDeleteEileen
ReplyDeleteAccording to the Money Flow T, the down move in TLT should be over today or tomorrow.
Sorry Edwardo, that was PositionSizing addressing the yield curve, thanks.
ReplyDeleteEileen
ReplyDeleteI should add that whatever rally we get in TLT probably will be short-lived like the expected equity correction.
Wow these money flow t have been an awesome addition to the toollkit appreciate all the work
ReplyDeletebkx pulling back a bit
ReplyDeleteema's my cross to downside
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&id=p68746642128
Thanks Scott. Can you get the BKX to get back under the 200 day?
ReplyDeleteDo you think the fedroids are on this blog?
FEDROIDS are EVERYWHERE!
ReplyDeleteScott do think they are trading using QE2 money and buying the BKX or other indicies? Futures?
ReplyDeleteTLT may have developed positive divergance on RSI at todays low. How much bounce you are expecting in TLT?
ReplyDeleteJim Curry is come out with new free update. Looking for his 180 days cycle top in range of 1243-1286 .. timewise .. anytime from now till Jaunary. Earier he had it mostly in January but now saying anytime from now is possible. Then 7-10% correciton and then one last upmove to top his 360 days (and 4 yr) cycle towards spring of 2011.
David at trade way out has similar top but he dosen't have 7-10% correciton in-between but he is open for some correction (I think)
Pug is also looking for same 7-10% correction now anytime but for his bullish model 2 wave and then his 3 of 3 up starts.
Forward,
ReplyDeleteAgree with what you wrote, even the part about Uncle Ben saving us from a depression (so far). My only gripe about Ben is that I believe he studied the wrong thing. Instead of studying the Depression and what could have been done to mitigate it, why not study what CAUSED the Depression in the first place? If Greenspan and Bernanke had studied the CAUSE of the Depression, they might have kept us out of the mess we are in now. Those guys created this mess with their monetary policy that helped fuel both the stock bubble of the 90's and the housing bubble that followed. Giving Bernanke credit for saving us from a Depression is kinda like giving the arsonist credit for calling the fire department right after he starts the fire.
there is no credit for NOT to create mess. But there is credit to resolve mess. He would not have for Time man award of there was no mess for him to resolve.
ReplyDeleteForward
ReplyDeleteFEDROIDS are buying on rotation - they know they have to get the financials above the april highs or there is no pump continuation...
look at all the games with GM C NETFLIX, CAT, PRICELINE...et al
Well, then shorts are screwed.
ReplyDeleteannonced POMO schedule ends tomorrow...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ny.frb.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
I'll take a stab at it: PlungeProtection Open Market Operations?
ReplyDeletelol - see you all tomorrow
ReplyDeletegreat info today
Parker,
ReplyDeleteYou might want to ask that clown what his problem is. Right after the close he asked rhetorically how the crash warning you gave was working out.
I can keep this off the board if you shoot me an e-mail. Pity when someone needs to get noticed by pointing out a call that didn't work out, as if this is a easy business we deal in. I don't know why he grabbed your number, but he sure seems to want to hold onto it.
DISCLOSURE: I don't know Parker at all. But I don;t like seeing people doing genuine work to help others getting slammed, and especially by someone who doesn't know anything.
Steve
ReplyDeleteThanks again.
I think I disclosed that the HSKAX signal led to 6 corrections/crashes that started within 5 days, and also led to 3 false positive signals. So, it's not foolproof.
Further, you know that if the correction has not started within 5 days, the signal is likely to be invalid.
If I cared, I'd go respond to his latest BS on his blog. But after learning about him from you and others, I really don't care anymore.
Off the cuff, it sounds like he's got to make himself feel better by putting others down. He must have a lot of issues. I hope he gets them worked out.
feb 8 2011, april 13 2011 - some dates to think. got from astro. there is one in march for gold .. mar 16 2011 ... DO NOT know if top or bottom or mean anything yet. But Feb date is close to Parker's T tops.
ReplyDeleteMarket very strong overnight. I see gold bouncing big tomorrow and letting equities rally..
ReplyDeleteForward and other, re: the yield curve
ReplyDeleteThe yield curve is indeed steepening.... meaning the long bond yield is raising relative to the short term.. the t bills are nominally at 0 while the long govy is now up to 4.43, an increase of about 50 basis points in a few weeks.
However, the yield curve is also flattening, meaning the difference between the "belly" of the curve is raising faster than the long bond. For instance, the "spread" between the 10 year and the long bond was about 160 basis points a few weeks ago, and is now about 120 basis points. This "flattening" is making it harder for banks to earn profits, as the spread they depend on is declining.
Here endeth the Gospel for the evening!
Bill
Thanks for clarifying that Bill. If it's getting harder for banks to profit, why are their stocks leading the market advance?
ReplyDeleteThe bank stocks are leading the market advance?
ReplyDeleteThe BKX closed above its 200MA today for the first time in 4 months. Since Sept 1, BKX is up 12%, and the S&P is up 18%.
That's not much of a bank stock rally.
With such a sharp correction in 2 days, Gold now hits the lower trendline (start from the July/August low). It is possible that Gold will have a short rebound.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure whether the correction has ended and we are moving towasrd next high or the price drops will continue further adn break the lower trendline.
I think quick trip to 1241-1251 and then 7-10% last correction before we go to moon next spring. USD is going to reach close to 84 at least now bu may be even more to get that 7-10% correction.
ReplyDeletelooks like January Barometer may come true. So my guess is Jim Curry's 180 days cycle is topping early instade of January and going to give this correction before last up wave for larger 36 days and 4 yr cycle top next year.
Dates for next year - Feb 8 2011, April 13 2011 ..don't know yet top or bottom bt first one may/can be some inerim top before final top.
In some blog someone (I tried to find person today but could not..but making sure its not my credit) mentioned about 144 gann days and then 144/5 = 28/29 weeks and since 2007 first top always after 14 weeks, 28-29 weeks something important happened. First two tops where 14 weeks apart. March bottom and april top are 29x2 = 58 weeks apart. April top and Nov top are 29 weeks apart Even lows follow 14/28-29 wk. Now from Nov top we have 14 weeks to Feb 8 2011 wk (I think) since we have already gone above nov top I think we will get top again after 14 weeks in Feb 8 2011 week. So as David at trade way out says No santa rally this time seems. But then new year may be bang.
The Hang Seng Index currently has developed a brodening formation fot the right shoulder of a larger H&S pattern. This pattern rarely fails once it has made the 4th lower low. In this position it is extremely bearish. I look for a possible break down very soon.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Default/media/7dd1353c-5420-4900-815d-f0a673d09a23
Something peciliar is going on with breadth and volume numbers. Look at the last two days where up volume exceeds down volume although breadth was to the negative Tuesday and really lopsided today. Even breadth but double up volume (Citi Govt Sale?) and today about 3 to 2 down vs. up stocks and yet up volume still was higher by 30% or so. What do you make of that.
ReplyDeleteUp Down Up Vol Down Vol
1522 1516 1060994 547993
1181 1860 665178 433954
I was taking a look at the price pattern on the SPX from the last couple of days to see what we might be in for if it rises tomorrow the 9th. I did this by eye ball so it’s not as exact as if done by computer but it’s close. Tuesday was a bearish hammer followed by an up close today the 8th. Going back to 1988 I found 36 examples that are close to the pattern of the last two days. In most case the price after rising for a few days then declined back below the low of the hammer day at least on an intraday basis. It did this a little over 72% of the time. Most of the time 3-6 days were required for the price to rise and then retrace. Of course this time could be one of the 28% that didn't retrace but the short 3-6 day retrace seems to fit with the idea of a Dec 20th low.
ReplyDeleteJeff
ReplyDeleteThat's VERY interesting.
PositionSizing,
ReplyDeleteYou're right again, I was just referring to yesterday's market advance that was led by the financials.
ETFtrader, I see your point. On the other hand, if FXI is a proxy for the Hang Seng, then the right shoulder may also present a tradable double bottom starting today, no?
ReplyDeleteHello. FWIW, cash SP500 finally printed daily sequential sell countdown bar #13 yesterday. Now come all the rules for actually getting a "sell" signal.
ReplyDeleteComing back to the title of this post about Gold: this commodity has been leading stock markets higher so far; if gold has reversed it will lead the same market down. Now leaving T theory and EW apart for a moment, something has never lied to me: volume. Since April high all volumes indicators have been deteriorating. It is quite rare to see PVT (PriceVolTrend), TSV (time segmented volume), OBV and money flow ALL diverge, on daily AND weekly. This is occuring NOW. And we have just Gold reversing and equity market indexes marking a double top. So what? Sorry but with the following setup I can't and won't be a bear...(and I admit I have been a short way too early):
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/ASpE69Nd
Sorry: I meant "I can't be a bull" obviously ;-)
ReplyDeleteSaxby
ReplyDeleteThanks. What are the rules for getting a sell signal?
Carl - very interesting. Thanks!
Parker: To start with .... the 'aggressive' signal would have been to sell on the close yesterday. This is the riskiest play... stop loss level calculates out to 1246.98. Conservative play is to wait for a 'price flip'. Today that would mean close 1224.71. There are also a bevy of other ways to enter the short using other DeMark tools.
ReplyDeleteOoops. Critical that my last post say we get a price flip today with a close BELOW 1224.71. Sorry .... bad proofreading on my part.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny, I nailed today and my post was deleted. Noone wants to hear the truth. Besides slamming T-Theory have I not been correct the past 2 weeks?
ReplyDeleteGood morning,
ReplyDeleteRegarding breadth, does the divergence in the daily McClellan Summation Index look exactly like it did in April '10 right before the huge decline? More importantly, do technicals even matter when there's such suspected gov't intervention in the markets? Have the buy-and-hold snoozers been vindicated?
Willy
A decline to the low of the hammer day, Tuesday is only a pullback to 1223 on the SP. What does your analysis say will happen from there?
Scott, how's that pullback in $bkx coming?
Thanks.
Forward: What happens after that is a crapshoot. My main point in mentioning this was to show that there’s a decent chance for a decline into that Dec. 20th date and that if the SPX were to rise for a couple of days it might be worth while to try and put on a quick short trade. By the way I must have been tired when I wrote that last night. I called it a hammer. It’s a shooting star. Sorry.
ReplyDelete