$$ Year in Review: Where to Start Long Range Advance Decline Ts

This will be the first in a series of posts as we close out 2010 on lessons we have learned this year.  I have a few topics in mind.  Feel free to make suggestions.

Where to Start Long Range Advance Decline Ts

Instead of starting the Advance Decline T (ADT) at the ultimate peak in the NYAD line, I proposed starting ADTs in the middle of the first bearish divergence between the NYAD peak and the S&P.  

With respect to T12, this start date (May 27, 1998) produced accurate forecasts of: 

1) The Feb 2007 top when using the Oct 2002 low as a center post,

2) The July 2007 top when splitting the Oct 2002 and March 2003 lows as a center post, and

3) The Dec 2007 top when using the March 2003 low as a center post.

With respect to T13, the split divergence start date (June 22, 2007) produced accurate forecasts of:

1)  The late April 2010 top when using the Nov 2008 low as a center post

2)  The early Nov 2010 top when using the March 2009 low as a center post

For a recent post with charts showing the split divergence start dates for T12 and T13, please see:

Is T14 Starting?

For further/more detailed reference, please see the following videos:

A Look Back at T12

Tweaking the 13th Advance Decline T