Thanks to JT for pointing out a Volume Oscillator T I had overlooked. Here's how the VO looked in early September. If we start a T on June 15 (VO = 134) and put a center post at the end of the August 24-26 rising bottoms pattern (VO = -95, -88), I project a November 8 end date. JT notes that VO T targets can be a bit early compared to the actual turn.
This VO T lines up with other forecasts for a top in the second week of November, and explains why we appear to be going to new highs on the VO -- we are setting up the left side of the next (presumably bearish) T.
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Presumably the small BEAR? T which ends on Nov.10-13 is higher than Bull T which ended in APR?
ReplyDeleteIf you use the last price low of the three lows in late August you can actually extend out to November 16th. I say it safe to project that we will see a top in that time frame between the 12th and 16th. AD T comes in around November 8th to 10th as well depending on which extremes are used. That is about a week's timespan.
ReplyDeleteThe daily patterns looks somewhat similar to 4/15/10 on the S&P. Also that is the day after the final low on the dollar for months. There is a huge divergence on the daily charts on the EURO and the USD when looking at the RSI. Looks like a dollar bottom yesterday..of course no one is expecting this with more QE coming. But the dollar bottomed about a week before the top in the S&P in April of 2010.
ReplyDeleteWe could get a similar topping pattern to the April highs here for the S&P...meaning a likely higher high sometime next week. This also fits in nicely with a top around Nov. 12, and then the real diverngence in the RSI with the S&P.
Just a comment: the next stop for ES500 should be 1234.93 which is exactly 61.8% retrace from Oct2007 high to March09 low. Then the next stop is 78.6% retrace at 1389...Now if July low was only the low of B, the C wave would look curiously short...thoughts?
ReplyDeleteI'm very interested to see when this intermediate uptrend reverses. It looks a lot like the April top, but there are several differences in the weighting of buying to selling and the VIX isn't as low as it was then either. In any case, we're due for a correction. Parker, one thing that concerns me over my time watching T theory is that there is as yet no rule to determine when you should split bottoms or take the last one. Also, interesting video on double T's, but when do you determine that it should be used? There are plenty of MFI tops that just reverse and don't end by doubling the timespan. Ideas?
ReplyDeleteEvery major top in the last 20 years, has been marked by major divergence in two indicators I use. Currently, only one of them is showing a major divergence. Which leads me to think that this Nov top is going to be retested, forming what Terry called double tops, or even triple tops.
ReplyDeleteSC
Anonymous, would you mind sharing what are your "2 indicators"? Otherwise I don't see what it brings to this blog. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteCarl,
ReplyDeleteIn Elliotwave Theory, there is no rule for how long C should be in relation to A. There is however, guidelines on C; in a Zig Zag, C tends to equal 61.8% or 100% of A. What is interesting is, at 1347 in the SP, C would be 61.8% of A. But these ratios are only guidelines, and I think structure is more important.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteDo cash accumulation phases have to involve declining prices, or is the current declining tops in the VO a cash accumulation phase as you understand it?
Thanks
Thanks Steve. Agree but again, if the index stop at 1228.74 (61.8% for SPX and SPX hit 1227 today) this makes a ridiculous "C" compared to the "outrageous" "A". Could this be something totally different, like a "B" of expanded flat minor 2 (with its "C" to come around 1,000? Or else the start of a very big "3" of a big bull market launched in March09 ? That's the trouble with EW: useless most of the times...
ReplyDelete-----------------------------
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, would you mind sharing what are your "2 indicators"? Otherwise I don't see what it brings to this blog. Thank you.
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There are proprietary statistics measuring the market breadth.
I can share the result but not the trade secret. If that is not wanted, then I shall keep it to myself. Not a problem at all. Good luck to all. Bye.
Carl/Steve
ReplyDeleteLot of good cycle analyst are tracking this as ABC and then its correct that C should be at least 61.8 of A which is 1347 or so and will go till march - may 2011 .. thats why I was not sure of Terry Double top in 2010 as final tops of this bear rally (if you call it bear rally)
Parker
ReplyDeleteI have a attached a link to stockchart showing the past 3 months... does anyone else think what we saw from 10/20 to 11/2 might be described as a "coil"? I think you, Parker wrote about coils earlier.
If I recall, most think that a coil first moves in a direction opposite to the ultimate direction, like a head fake.
Anyone else think this might be a valid interpretation of what we are watching?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p69034088051&a=208945960
Bill
Beware, both Terrys and Parkers methods are going to lose you a lot of money in his market, traders. Very interesting stuff, but not for real money trading. Cycles are fascinating, but extremely dangerous. Don't fight the fed, good luck to all. There is NO market top come Nov 12. It will be revised, extended, until you are flat broke.
ReplyDeleteHey Parker..
ReplyDeleteHow about assigning a number to each of these anonymous posters so I can tell who I should junk?
just say'n!
Bill
I would say from my understanding a double bottom is usually used when there are two successive bottoms where price is lower or about the same on the second bottom and the oscillator has a higher bottoms pattern.
ReplyDeleteI have been following Terry for years and I want to say something again that I've said 100 times before. There are no specific rules or instance that work 100% of the time. There are general principles and these principles guide you in your analysis and let you come up with a plausible interpretation (not exact or certain)of those printed activities. Flexibility allows you to adjust your analysis by realizing up front that this works a good portion of the time but not always. The statements and questions I see usually revovle around disappointment because some aspect of the theory failed to work out exactly. Therein lies the problem. This particular psychology keeps you in the inflexible state of wanting concrete answers that simply don't exist. The true art of all this is adaptibility. T theory provides a time symmetrical way of interpreting market action that Terry feels is superior to others and that is the only statement he makes.
Back to basics. This particular pattern is being unduly influenced by false cash accumulation that is being injected into the markets in the form of POMO. In fact the bulls are so drunk that they immediately began talking about QE3. That means they believe there will be an unending supply of money coming into the system. That definitely changed the structure of the rally in April and for this current rally. Don't be misled.
There has never been a country in history that got itself out of debt by spending more money. Why? Because printing money does not promote actual growth. That money is going to the very institutions that got us into all this trouble to begin with hoping they willlend it out to those who will start businesses that will promote job growth. Jobs reflect internal growth which is sustainable and more importantly they spur confidence. However, if there is little confidence that borrowing to expand will produce results than that activity will never happen because confidence in all of this is missing. You do not need to be a genuis to understand that. Who in this country is wiling to take on more debt right now?
Bill
ReplyDeleteI'm the same poster that told you 2 weeks ago to not fight the fed, I think the s&p was 1180.
Since your so smart ANON why are you wasting time with the peasants? BTW the FED is responsible for this mess and the next mess they are cooking right now. So in essence you could follow the FED all the way to HADES. Regardless of what the FED does cycles exist because that is nature and as a matter of fact the FED moves in cycles as well. You and I will both be dead someday regardless of what the FED does. While you may be able to delay your death you cannot avoid it. While that may be an extreme analogy I find it just as extreme to not be polite and identify yourself or to suggest that cycles are extremely dangerous and then in the same breath state that I told you that two weeks ago. We are all here trying to share and learn. My opinion is that you will find that a top will indeed be put in even if it is just a pullback. Play nice class.
ReplyDeleteFor those of you perplexed as to how and why markets go up in bad economic times go here.
ReplyDeleteThat said there will be a top this month - how far down nobody knows for sure.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Hi Parker,
ReplyDeleteSince early October 75% of stocks have stayed above their 50 day average, reaching ~90% in the week of October 12. Does this signal a new uptrend?
http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/$MMFI
Edwin
didn't terry laundry say that cash build up for his T14 started in summer
ReplyDeletewell, cash is building up alright, Fed prints it and it is building everything up :-D
to his so-so credit, he is not shorting and he is in gold, but as for gold, big deal, bottom was 2008, only long term unbroken uptrend and laundry picks up on it in 2009, as for him and market, it's easy to to do whatever forecast when one is not positioned, if it works, glory and groupies, if not, no big deal, they have no money in it to lose
Terry has been a gold bull for almost a decade numbskull
ReplyDeleteTerry has been a bond and gold bull for qulite some time. He also correctly said to get in fagix (hi yld bonds) if u didnt want to buy equities on this current T ending nov12. Wow, a few of you should really go to his archives and listen again. He has been as bullish on gold and bonds as anyone out there.
ReplyDeleteI love the Terry diciples - they defend him to the death - yet curious if any of them have made any real money. Yes I agree- his long term views are interesting at best - but he torched people this year - and anyone who claims different has blinders on. Cmon. aug 26th- thAt was the low print of the greatest rally in 70 years. But ok we all should have our own views we are all adults and I don't blame anyone, but gimme a break - this guy has killed people this summer, end of story.
ReplyDeleteAnon
ReplyDeleteThen go ahead and FADE him. Fade everything he says. You should love him of start your own blog and make statements after the Fact. Its easy to look in the rear view mirror, They are free blogs. Identify yourself and make a CALL or you really sound like a wannabe investor. Identify yourself and make a call then. You act like you are Perfect. No trader or investor is Spot On anytime. Go Troll another blog. You come across very immature, U have small syndrome, small account im sure.
Let's make some distinctions. Terry discusses his theory like a gentlemen with the proper caveat that his ideas are merely observations he has made with his theory for 30 plus years. He does not charge money for his observations. His observations again are for picking asset classes from which he has beaten most any return with the fund he manages even in bear markets. These are all facts not the rantings of groupies. If you are using his posts to trade the S&P 500 then you will find that task difficult but if you have listened to him when he identifies assest classes to switch your money to then you will have done very nicely. The China fund he recommended last year has returned over 90%. Gold calls and bond calls have been right on. Yes, he was inaccurate with the August call but any person with a brain would never have made any bet on a top at that point had they been paying attention. You on the other hand show up on a blog and make negative and unsubstantiated statements regarding something you know little about. BTW Terry has many customers that invest in his fund who are more than satisfied and have made more than most mutual fund holders have in the past 20 years. I have also made a great deal of money by following and incorporating his advice into my trading. You see its not about blindly following somebody else. It about using what you can and appreciating someone who has the decency and nerve to put it out there and not hide behind an anonymous post. It is better that you remain that way since you really have nothing of importance to contribute to this blog. Your posts hold nothing of value and do not contirbute any knowledge to what is being discussed here. Please go back to arguing with your sister about who mom loves more.
ReplyDeleteI am a very active blogger, my track record of calls and moves are all well-documented at
ReplyDeletemarkettime.blogspot.com
I have been doing the markets for a decade and a half and counting
I have learned so much from Terry Laundry and find him an extremely gracious and generous observer
Despite differing views at times, I respect and even trust the way he deploys capital
I think Jeff is correct in everything he says
I just wonder why operator of this blog allows anonymous comments
And I also wonder why some of you bother to respond to anons of this world, best treatment for that ilk is to ignore them
ReplyDeleteif someone is willing to openly discuss views, that is how markets are made and played
but play cheap and crap? just ignore them
Piazzi, Jeff
ReplyDeleteI agree with you.... too bad we have to put up with the half wit, inexperienced, immature trolls that so often contaminate most of the better known blogs and special interest web sites.
Parker can put an end to it if he so desires, and I would support eliminating any poster who is unable or unwilling to provide a user name and a valid email.
Bill
OK - I've deleted the personal attack comments between da chief and BillH. Courtesy please.
ReplyDeleteSpyros from Greece, in the process I deleted your comment by mistake. Please accept my sincerest apologies. It was unintentional.