Highest AAII bullish sentiment since January 2007.
The 51.2% bullish reading on October 28 was the previous 2010 high.
By historical comparison, the end of T12 saw a similar bullish reading of 54.6% on October 11, 2007 (the day that marked the top).
Anyone else find it "ironic" that while the AAII bullish sentiment is making a 45-month high, ZeroHedge reported today that Insiders sold an all-time record amount of shares last week?
Hmmmmmmm.
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Sure seems like something is coming. Can someone (Parker if you would) help me with something I saw.
ReplyDeleteHere goes.
I really don't follow Elliott Wave, and I am sure the following is totally incorrect, but can someone tell me why it is incorrect.
We had a huge WAVE 1 - from March 09 to April 10 - with 1 of 1 ending in June 2009, then 2 of 1 down to July of 2010, 3 of 1 ending in Jan. 2010, then 4 of 1 down to Feb. of 2010, and 5 fo 1 ending in April of 2010.
We had Wave 2 from April 2010 to July 2010.
We are currently in Wave 3 - we had 1 of 3 from July 2010 to early August 2010, then 2 of 3 down to August of 2010, and are in 3 of 3 and may be near an end of it. So we still need 3 of 4 down and 3 of 5 up, then big wave 4 down, and a final 5th wave. So this could drag out for quite some time.
It doesn't at all seem right to me because the rally from March 09 to April 10 will be way longer than the projected big 3rd wave (since we already had a wave 2 of 3 down)...and this big 3rd wave would be much shorter than the big 1st wave of March 09 to April 10.
I am sure this logic is wrong, but I just want someone to indicate that EW doesn't work this way. Thanks.
If you ask an EW guy today, you will get one answer. If you ask him after he has seen another couple of days data, he will have another answer.
ReplyDeleteSnark off.
Bill
Sorry Fred
ReplyDeleteI'm not an EW expert. I do often see and anticipate 3- and 5-wave moves, but I don't try to define the market with them.
Fred, believe me: the best way to avoid being ruined is to stop following all those amateur EWavers on the internet including EWI Bob Prechter with all respect. Use EW as confirmation tool but NEVER as a decision tool. You can see the current count on at least 5 different ways, all following strictly EW "rules". Useless - useless! Example: the original count having us at the end of Primary 2 in a super-bearish configuration is still valid (but was already in 2009!). The other one having us at a Cycle or SuperCycle low Wave 4 in March 20009 is also valid and we just completed big Wave 1 in April 2009 (or not...). Within this bullish scenario we are either in "big" wave 3 bullish now...or still in wave 2 flat correction with A in July low and B slightly exceeding April's high now and heading for "C" to be just below July lows...etc,etc,etc.
ReplyDeleteThe point is, to come back to this article and to confirm AAII bullish exhuberance: look at the below link on Nasdaq sentiment - as far as I am concerned, not a 45-mth high but a All-Time high. And I prefer using those indicator because they are just facts. See this Nasdaq sentiment line and look at what the price did each time the sentiment got, not "that" high as this is an all-time high, but even below: Ka-boom. So I am still expecting a huge correction very soon based on that. That would confirm Parker and Terry calculations.
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/nasdaq_sentiment.htm
Sorry, above instead of "we just completed big Wave 1 in April 2009 (or not...)" you should read "we just completed big Wave 1 up in April 2010 (or not...). sorry for the confusion.
ReplyDeleteFred: If I am reading your question correctly...
ReplyDeletethe answer is that the third wave of a five wave impulse pattern is USUALLY but doesn't HAVE to be the longest. However, it can NEVER be the shortest when compared to waves 1 and 5.
Hope that helps.
Hello folks, CNBC has an interesting article which includes reference to a 70 day cycle in the S&P 500 which ends today, Nov 12: http://classic.cnbc.com/id/40137432
ReplyDeletejoe
I am an EW practitioner
ReplyDeletemy track record is there for all to see at
markettime.blogspot.com
EW is a tool among many other tools and that is just that
sellers of EW services promote what they sell same way the makers of viagra sell their pill
problem with EW is that it makes it easy for a practitioner to come to a conclusion about the future, and that, to the uninitiated, is deadly
One has to be constantly aware that there always can be both bullish and bearish alternate counts, sellers of services sell their biases (sometimes perma-biases) along with their waves, and that also can be deadly to the uninitiated
often times, a simple line does a lot more wonders making you money than an elaborate wave count ;-)
Thanks Joe.
ReplyDeleteHadn't noticed that before. Went back and checked it. Looks like a nice pattern of turns every 67-73 days since the high in October 2007 with one exception (81 days for one turn).
If the 67-73 day pattern holds, we should get a top between 11/11 (yesterday) and 11/19 (next Friday).
Hi Piazzi, in your post you made sure to include a link to your blog: as I didn't know this one I had a quick look. Perhaps too quick because I could not see the "track record" you are alluding. To me track record means a record of real trades along with the usual trading stats such as profit factor, %Win/%loss, average trade and especially avg and maximum drawdown...
ReplyDeleteHi Carl, I have followed Piazzi's blog for a couple years. The track record is in the reading. Like everyone else he is not perfect but offers sound technical views, which includes current wave counts and alternates.
ReplyDeleteIf his intent was ever to prove how great a trader he is or that he can pick stocks, it is not something I have ever noticed. On the other hand he does paint a technical picture that has value to a trader.
Luv, are you speaking about yourself ;-)
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeleteI read your chicago story and I fully agree with you. But my only point was if Fed is done buying right now. And I don't think so. They have much bigger buying apetitte than many thinks. So yes eventually they will be done buying just like your chicago story. I fully agree if sit out you won't be at any loss at all at the end. But if you shorting agreesively I am not sure if you will not be in loss even at the end.
Thanks
Yash
Carl, my bad for offering a view of something I have found of value. Draw your own conclusions then - but don't confuse me with Piazzi. It's not worth the aggravation to contribute a view if it only results in unfavorable innuendo.
ReplyDeletePlay nice everybody.
ReplyDeleteNo need for personal jibes. We have some very intelligent contributors to this blog, and all viewpoints are welcome. Feel free to state your disagreement with a particular viewpoint, but please respect the other person in doing so.
Thanks.
Seems if we hang in today, we could see a similar double topping pattern seen in the Jan, Apr, and Aug highs. Each had a brief selloff before hitting a new high, then falling apart. If we hold 1200 today, we could see a rally next week for the top in the time frame several are discussing.
ReplyDeleteFred
ReplyDeleteI've taken a short position and will hold over the weekend if we break the channel that's been support for 6 weeks (which is right at ~1200). If that channel holds, I'll go to cash for the weekend.
@ Parker
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update on the live trade and overall work on your blog, youtube, etc. I really enjoy seeing the data behind the decision.
I went short yesterday and increased my position a couple hours ago.
Thanks Vapor. Good luck with your trade.
ReplyDeleteBTW I plan to make a couple of videos this weekend on specific rules for drawing Money Flow Ts.
Parker
ReplyDeleteS/P closed at 1,199. Wondering if you went to cash for the weekend based on your comments above.
"Joseph said...Hello folks, CNBC has an interesting article which includes reference to a 70 day cycle in the S&P 500 which ends today, Nov 12: http://classic.cnbc.com/id/40137432"
ReplyDeleteLol, that is so interesting that he discovered this,because I also discovered this cycle years ago and posted on the T&C forum and also on my blog recently: 7. The 70 TD cycle: 10/11/07, 1/23/08, 5/2/08, 8/12/08, 11/19/08, 3/4/09, 6/12/09, 9/22/09, 12/31/09, 4/14/10, 7/23/10, next: 11/1
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010_10_01_archive.html
We must be drinking from the same well no? ;0)
Vapor
ReplyDeleteHolding over the weekend. We broke the channel and did not ever rise back into it (or through my stop).
Thanksgiving week is typically bullish, so if we are to get a correction back to say the 50-day moving average, I think it comes next week. That's my general target by the way for this leg down: the mid-channel as Terry calls it.
Options expiration next Friday, and maximum pain portends falling prices, not rising prices.
I could have it all wrong, and get stopped out early next week. Time will tell.
Besides the 70 TD Cycle That was posted, I had 3 other Cycles that topped out on 11/5, that was posted today:
ReplyDeletehttp://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/11/is-there-major-trend-change-at-hand.html
"Here are 3 cycles that supports the 11/5/10 High, the last 2 were posted by Peter at the T&C forums:
1. 77-80 wk cycle: 10/25/04L-80w-5/8/06L-77wk-10/31/07H -2X78.5 wks = 11/5/10H
2. 95 TD Cycle: 5/08/09H -95- 9/23/09H-93-2/5/10L -95- 6/21/10H -96- 11/5/10H
3. 1519 TD/6 Yr Cycle: 10/5/92L-1519-10/8/98L-1519-10/25/04L-1520-11/5H"
Carl,
ReplyDeleteThe context of the comment I made was EW and not guru-man-ship or success statistics
What I meant by track-record was that my use of elliott wave going back to 2008 is there for all to see.
If one wants to check me out for my technical ananlysis and use of elliott wave, one can go to archives, to posts around major turns and see how I have seen it
I mainly cover S&P and sometimes NDX, within that context, stock selection is moot, as what I do based on that is the index not a particular stock
I used to cover gold/siver/miners but I stopped due to strain on my time I can allocate for free. Yet, one can go back and see how I got those around turns when I was covering them
I am the first to admit that I am not a guru and that I have no knwledge of the future
So, if yon have any comments on EW, which was, after all, what I was commenting about, I am more than happy to further any discussions on the topic and learn something from you
If you want stats, look elsewhere, commentary is all I do for free