This morning we have dipped into the 1180s on the S&P and it's time to start looking at potential price support zones for this first leg down:
1. 50-day moving average = 1165
2. 38.2% Fib retrace from late August low to November high = 1155
3. 90% Gann turn from November high = 1146
38.2% Fib retrace from early July low to November high = 1144
4. 50% Fib retrace from late August low to November high = 1133
Old tops become bottoms = 1130
The deeper the support zone, the less likely we hit it before we bounce.
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Parker - question if you can answer .. Terry has glod T using MFI for high sometime in mid-dec time frame. And equities has null echo low around same time frame. Do you think this is contracdictory?
ReplyDeleteYash
ReplyDeleteNo. Both gold and equities indicate a cycle high in early December according to MF Ts. A simultaneous sell off in both is not unusual - just look at the activity in the last week or so.
Oh I was not knowing you are looking for equities cycle high before december null echo.
ReplyDeleteSo after this sell of both bounce for their cycle highs early december before selling off again for nulled echo of equites?
Parker,
ReplyDeleteWhat reading would you recommend to grasp your point of view on Gann angles?
some cycles suggest that this first leg that you are refering to above support levels will be the entire correction itself and intermediate term KST analysis suggest the same. it dosen't support current top of 1230 or so being final top at all. And I know you are also open for something like T14 too but I am still not sure we are going to get important low mid dec. it may be much before that.
ReplyDeleteSPY break down
ReplyDeleteSPY has now broken down below the recently developed down trend support line, on the 10 minute, the 60 minute and the daily.
The decline is picking up momentum and the first Fib target of 115.5 on the SPY should be a worthwhile target.
Bill
waw4 - I picked it up from searching on Google as well as Connie Brown's book TA for the Trading Professional.
ReplyDeleteYash
ReplyDeleteMy general thought is that this correction in equities and gold will end before Thanksgiving, then we get a bounce into early December before turning down again into the nulled echo low. I don't have a feel for how high we bounce, but I doubt we take out 1228 on the S&P.
Thanks Bill
ReplyDeleteParker - current correction should end this week almost neat 18th as venus/jupitor both turn direct and trend will reverse .. since we are going down towards that date it will change to up (opposite could have also happened but we are not going up towards that date now) .. After that I don't about dec null echo. Means I am not certain we will get lower low than this week's low and I know by your theory we should. I was not saying we will take out 1228 in-between this. It will be taken out later on towards year end or early next year.
ReplyDeleteParker - congrats for receving kind words from Terry. Thats a achievement.
ReplyDeleteCan you remind us about december null echo .. I remember Terry had original double tops of May 20 and Augest 26 and then difference between them was added after Augest top date to get null echo in December. Am I remmebering correct?
Becuase since we did not get may and augest tops, I am trying to confirm null echo calculation is still correct and I belive you have verified it.
Yash
ReplyDeleteThe nulled echo low says you start from the AD Peak in early June 2007 with a center post at the early March 2009 price to produce an early-mid December nulled echo low. Based on a 3+ year cycle, the target is not going to be precise or exact.
Parker and all the rest.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15685450561&a=208157723
The attached chart is the weekly SPY, showing the MFI T that projected a top in the SPY this week.
In addition, the chart shows what could be a significant double top.
My momentum indicators gave a sell signal confirmation last Friday, 11/12. This could get interesting.
Bill
Parker - got it. you are right about accurancy. May turn out to be 1 month +/- too.
ReplyDelete