Today, we rose up and tested but could not break the down sloping resistance line connecting the tops on November 9, 10 and 11. We also tested but could not break through the 61.8% retracement level (1207.31 S&P cash) from high on November 11 to the low on November 12. Subsequently, we took out the 61.8% retracement level (1199.18) from the low on November 12 to the high of today.
All of this is consistent with normal price movement in a downtrend, the diagnosis of which stays intact.
If you were not already short, you had a nice opportunity to get short mid-day today with a pretty tight stop at trend line and Fibonacci resistance.
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I put a small short position on somewhere between 2:15 and 2:30 after the short-term uptrend broke. SPY will have to break 119.74 approximately to confirm the trend is over. However, if it turns around, I'll follow it cautiously.
ReplyDeleteand the VO for today is?
ReplyDeletethe vo is -40.6
ReplyDeleteThe VO value can be found in the evening at the following site:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
the VO is in the right column. Look it up tonight so that you can see the -40.6 value. The McClellan group makes this available to us techies.
Thanks Alan and Cycleguy.
ReplyDeleteUmm. Only way to edit is to remove the whole post and start over.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting that with the Treasurys selling off faster than the Corporates the confidence indicator is flying up towards the prior high even as the market is in a downtrend.
Again, I'm a novice...but it seems the bonds have been moving opposite the "normal" trend. The 10yr yield has been skyrocketing as equities decline. I'm former mortgage biz and usually the opposite is the case. As the stock market declines and safe havens (bonds) are sought, yields should increase as rate decreases.
ReplyDeleteMoney printing by the Fed is causing yields to rise, and screwing with the normal operation of the Confidence Indicator (along with a lot of other things).
ReplyDeleteParker -
ReplyDeleteI was doing analysis on some indicators like KST and Momentum etc .. They are available in fidelity as well as some are available in barcharts.com and may be on some other sites too. Looking at past histry of this indicators it dosen't seem likely that there is large selloff will happen anytime soon. I checked UUP also for same. In short term UUP is up and so equities are trying to correct but intermediate term KST is big up for equities and big down for UUP. Also with dollar may be putting 3 yr low in spring of 2011 and we still have inverse relationship going on, its good to assume equities will be up. Also cycle mans point to same too. Also with same indicators I checkted TLT and its big bad for TLT with not only short term KST but intermediate KST turned negative so seems they wiill be down trending so decent time now. I don't remeber but Terry had some T on TLT going into sometime next year.
Comments by you on this indicators is appreacited.
Yash
ReplyDeleteI apologize I don't have more to say, but I have a short trade on and am focused on what's going on now through the anticipated nulled echo low in December as opposed to longer range forecasts into next Spring.
When we get closer to next Spring, I'll be posting my thoughts right here.
As an aside, I don't use KST in making forecasts.
Luv
ReplyDeleteThe Confidence Index will break out of divergence with a reading of .8307. Close but not there yet.