This morning, the Bank of England left rates alone and decided not to engage in further QE. The European Central Bank left its minimum bid rate alone. As a result, you can expect the dollar index to suffer.
As I noted six weeks ago, the dollar was carving a head and shoulders pattern that suggested a target of 71. We may get there.
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Hi Parker, if this comes true then we have a waterfall-like motion in order because if DX does not rise immediately it will confirm a huge monthly triangle down break, which objective is...56. The good thing is that on the monthly chart one can also see a Inverted complex H&S, with 2 shoulders from each side.
ReplyDeleteI am full short here but if the Dollar Index breaks below 74.21 (the lowest right side shoulder) I think I close everything (I prefer losing my shirt but keep my underwear before the winter starts)...
sorry, forgot to post my screenshot:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/OcsfboOB
Again- all the bears are getting ROASTED!
ReplyDeleteThese indicators DONT WORK.
Any Bull on this site gets showered with bearish commentary, just cover already.
Parker - two questions.
ReplyDelete1. I threw some volume numbers into the spreadsheet to see where we might end the day. If it resembles Oct 13 (reasonable but not necessarily a good assumption) then the volume oscillator will be around 40, or roughly at the trendline for that oscillator. Terry would be the better person to answer the posit, but your thoughts are appreciated.
2. In a similar vein, would you consider that equities might be the second leg rather than bonds (of gold, equities, bonds) IF the finale for T-13 does not hold? Clearly, there is time yet for that to complete on schedule, just a hypothetical. I have no idea what will happen over the next several days and no personal bias.
Luv
ReplyDeleteThe current trend line on Terr's VO was about 26 yesterday, and losing 1.7 points per day.
Not sure what you mean by second leg.
Parker, recalculated and yes, about 1.77 pts/day, and should have dropped to about 33 pts today. Which ever number is correct is not important, I was curious as to your thoughts if that tendline is breached. FWIW the volume so far is more strongly advancers tahn used in the estimate but at lower participation. Absent a selloff in the last hour the trendline should be breached.
ReplyDeleteThe second leg was a question poorly worded. Consider it withdrawn. There will be time enough to consider the future when more is known.
Looks like we will have a new T folks. How does this change the forecast, AGAIN?
ReplyDeleteHi Parker,
ReplyDeleteDo you have an update on your initial scenario (peak on Oct 27th, and a final peak later in Nov)?
Thanks!
I think at this point all bets are off, at what point do we all just admit we are in different times, and the old indicators and methods don't work.
ReplyDelete