During the uptrend that started in March 2009, we have seen a selling climax every 75 trading days as defined by the T Theory Volume Oscillator. Each of the dates listed below is the end of the selling climax. In each case, the climax took several trading days to complete. In all but one case, the final low came several days after the selling climax:
March 2, 2009
TTVO = -168
Climax length: 3 trading days
Loss during climax on closing basis: 65 S&P points
Final low: 4 trading days after climax
June 17, 2009 (75 days later)
TTVO = -126
Climax length: 3 trading days
Loss: 35 points
Final low: 14 trading days after climax
October 2, 2009 (75 days later)
TTVO = -156
Climax length: 4 trading days
Loss: 37 points
Final low: October 2, 2009
January 22, 2010 (76 days later)
TTVO = -131
Climax length: 3 trading days
Loss: 60 points
Final low: 10 trading days after climax
May 7, 2010 (73 days later)
TTVO = -284
Climax length: 4 trading days
Loss: 90 points
Final low: 12 trading days later
August 24, 2010 (75 trading days later)
TTVO = -95
Climax length: 4 trading days
Loss: 45 points
Final low: 3 trading days later
If this cycle were to continue, the selling climax would commence on December 6 and end on December 9, 2010 (75 days after August 24). The final low would not occur until the week of December 13 or December 20.
As a reminder, the January Barometer (see Stock Traders Almanac) says that there is a 91.5% chance we finish 2010 either flat (+/- 5%) or down compared to 2009, which closed at 1115.10. This is because January 2010 closed well below 1115.10. So, any yearly close under 1170.85 (1115.1 x 1.05) will satisfy the January Barometer.
Should we get a selling climax the week of December 6 with a final low within 2 weeks after the climax, the January Barometer should easily be satisfied.
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Posts
Parker
ReplyDeleteGood Morning.. .don't you just love it when a plan works out?
Question..
Any thoughts on the Parker Sentiment Index....a recent series of higher lows compared to a series of flat SPX lows?
Inquiring minds want to know!
Bill
12/4 +/- is the next Major Square of Time
ReplyDeleteIt might be the High Parker is looking for.
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
I first mentioned this Square of Time back in September 2010.
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/09/...t-to-watch.html
Squares of CD from 7/18/06 Major Low:
26^2 = 05/24/08 -5 = 05/19/08 Major High
(26^2=26X26 CD=676CD+7/18/06L=5/24/08, etc.)
27^2 = 07/16/08 -1 = 07/15/08 Major Low
28^2 = 09/09/08 -5 = 09/02/08 Major High
29^2 = 11/05/08 -1 = 11/04/08 Major High
30^2 = 01/03/09+2 = 01/06/09 Major High
31^2 = 03/05/09+1 = 03/06/09 Major Low
32^2 = 05/07/09+1 = 05/08/09 Major high?
33^2 = 07/11/09-3 = 07/08/09 Major Low
34^2 = 09/16/09 = 09/16/09 High
35^2 = 11/24/09+3 = 11/27/09 Dubai Low
36^2 = 02/03/10 +2 = 02/05/10 Major Low
37^2= 04/17/10 +6 = 04/26/10 Major High
38^2 = 07/01/10 Major Low
39^2 = 9/16/10? => 8/31/10 Low?
Next is 7/18/06L + 40 squared days = 40^2 = 1600 = 12/04/10
Combine this CIT with the US Dollar CITs on 11/30 and 12/9 posted here:
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/11/us-dollar-cits.html
Parker
ReplyDeleteHere is the SPY daily... note the series of failed auctions....
It looks like a rally is setting up. .and if your MFI T's are predictive and the 75 day cycle is accurate, then this rally is the last and will set up the sell-off we expect.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59360431191&a=215603020
Bill
Bill
ReplyDeleteUnless you have figured out a way to look at the Parker Indicator intra-day, I can only see it End of Day.
If at the end of today we make a lower low in price compared to Nov 16, but make a higher low on the Parker Indicator, this will likely be the rising bottoms patten I am looking for to springboard a small rally into early December.
As for the failed auctions, clearly there is a support shelf at ~1171. I think there's a decent chance we break that shelf and trade into the 1160s by tomorrow. If we do, the Arms Index will give an oversold warning, once again supplying further evidence of a bounce to come into early December.
Raj
ReplyDeleteThanks for the Gann Square of Time info. I've never tried to square time before.
Why have you chosen July 18, 2006 as a start date?
These are actual days, not trading days, right?
Have you considered 4/26 as a start date?
+64 = June 28 (low)
+100 = August 2 (high)
+121 = August 23 (low)
+196 = November 6 (high)
+225 = December 5 (?)
Parker
ReplyDeleteI am referring to the last few day, I think since 11/16, that show higher lows for the Parker Sentiment Indicator and a series of flat lows for the SPX
Here is the link:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD:$CPC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90287960482&a=210303548
Bill
That is a nice find Parker,
ReplyDeleteI choose any major High or Low and start squaring from there and if there are more than 3 hits, I consider it "active".
This was first discovered my one of my mentors, James Brock, who noticed we were 55 squared weeks from 9/3/29H to 8/25/87H (and 10/29/29L to 10/20/87L), 56 Sq week s= 10/10/89 High, etc
Parker,
ReplyDeleteI use NYAD in my System but since it only posts long after end of day, I now use NYADV all the time including intraday. NYADV is only advancers but since there are only 2 inputs to NYAD anyway, it gives you nearly identical results for most technical purposes.
Thanks Stu!
ReplyDeleteThe square of time approach implies the highs/lows are separated by accelerated time differences.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the reason behind this? If we cannot explain this, I afraid this should be considered as conincidence and must not be relied upon as trading strategy.
Bosco,
ReplyDeleteLots of things we can't explain, but we still use. Doctors did not know how aspirin worked until very recently, but it was used for decades without knowing what the mechanism was.
There are a lot of mysteries in trading. Cycle analysis, how do you explain that? And what makes cycles stretch or even disappear? What causes sentiment to change? Do we know the reasons behind these things?
Hey Guys
ReplyDeleteHere is something that needs explanation, but none the less, "who you gon'a believe, me or your lying eyes"?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46688959908&a=208223578
I had a friend who was an old timer... a guy who was trading in the '30's through the '70's, who liked TA and was pretty good at it.. I asked him why he thought these charts, lines, moving averages, cycles, etc worked most of the time. He replied:
ReplyDelete"Because the Market has a Memory"
Is it predictive? For some; not at all. But for many, it is an art, not a science, and the results can be beautiful!
Bill
Thanks Bill.
ReplyDeleteJust a note that in the May crash, the 75-day cycle came early. If it comes early again, then we are looking at a selling climax that starts tomorrow or Thursday and ends early next week.