The VIX has broken above its 89-day moving average with conviction. The last time it did so was late April.
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- By trade, I am a successful trial lawyer. I managed my own investments, loved it, and now trade for a living.
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Terry Laundry has posted my weekend update at www.TTheory.com. This week I begin a series of articles examining the evidence for a top in ...
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We seem to be cutting a diamond formation on the S&P. If so, the minimum downside target is 50 points from where price breaks down.
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Parker, interesting stuff. The inner red bands are used for signal?
ReplyDeleteLuv
ReplyDeleteThe inner bands are hysteresis bands. See this article from Jan 2009 TA of SC:
http://www.traders.com/documentation/FEEDbk_docs/2009/01/alves.html
Note, we had 2 HSKAX signals last week. The first occurred on Monday. The second occurred on Wednesday. We still have 2 days left on the second signal. If we break through the shelf at 1173 in the next 2 days and head lower, I will consider the HSKAX signal validated.
Parker, still enjoying your fascinating observations. I just downloaded the Hysteresis Moving Averages article. Great stuff - Tired of getting whipsawned. Looks like we've got (many) multiple signals screaming short while the bullish sentiment still runs high.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your work and the minute we break south, I donate!
Smart money OEX put call ratio looks like a record low yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThanks Parker. I see you chose fib numbers in both the hysteresis banding and for the Bollinger setting, with a standard 2 deviation.
ReplyDeleteTerry had more nice words for you today, I can see why.
there was vix buy set up too. Vix outside upper BB and then coming inside BB .. buy for equties when in uptrend. Now one can argure if its in uptrend or not.
ReplyDeleteZero Hedge article today on HSKAX:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/without-much-fanfare-hskax-back-august-2007-quant-implosion-levels
Parker - can it go above 1227 before mid dec null echo? I don't think there is any such rule in t theory as its not predicting any price.
ReplyDeleteParker
ReplyDeleteOuch.. my neck hurts!
;-)
Bill
The Dollar has gotten to the top of its up trend channel, and the Euro has gotten to the bottom of its down trend channel. The current short term reversal of those trends should be expected.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16697344498&a=215820971
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71224298372&a=164047136
A couple of days rally will set us up for the expected fireworks next week.
My Momentum Change indicators are still flashing Sell signals... and as we all know, our timing tools are warning of a coming decline.
Bill
Review of the Dollar CITs posted on the T&C Blog on 11/23:
ReplyDeletehttp://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2010/11/us-dollar-cits.html
[attachment=0]Dollar Daily.gif[/attachment]
"Here are some recent and future Dollar CITs: 11/16, 11/22, 11/30, 12/9 and 12/17/10."
The 11/16 CIT was a Dollar High and a Stock market Low.
The 11/22 CIT was a Dollar Low and a Stock market High.
The 11/30 CIT was a Dollar high and tock market Low.
Next Dollar CITs have been adjusted to: 12/9-10 and 12/16.
Time and Cycles...
ReplyDeleteOK, I give.. what is a CIT?
Bill
Sorry, CIT = Change in Trend = High or Low
ReplyDeleteHSKAX signal validation....
ReplyDeleteIt would take quite a drop Parker to validate this signal if you are suggesting the SPX needs to drop below $1173 at Thursday's MOC.(trading at $1206 and change as of 3:45 PM)
But hey, who knows?
Throw everything up on the wall and see if it sticks.
Lakewood
ReplyDeleteThe market was at a critical juncture overnight last night. It could have turned down, with an initial target of 1158.
Instead, it turned up. What can I say? All you can do is anticipate and react. Certainly, HSKAX has been a sound warning signal through the last 3 years.
It now appears we are headed up into early next week as the Money Flow Ts suggest.
if this is 5th wave started we won't come back to 1170 now before 1250+ .. I don't know where is mid dec null echo in all this mess.
ReplyDeleteYash
ReplyDeleteAs John Rice, of Francis I DuPont & Co. used to say...."Welcome to Wall Street"
Bill
Well Parker,
ReplyDeleteIf the MFI T suggests we reach a cycle high December 6th (approximately).... then the 75 day cycle and the HSKAX signal are invalidated.
Or can we have a cycle high in the MFI T and a selling climax in the 75 day cycle and the HSKAX signal on or about the dame date?
And if the MFI T cycle high trades above the previous November price peak (which is above the Arpil peak), does it invalidate Laundry's Magic T because it "distorts" the time symmetry which is essential in his theory?
I guess I will have to tune in to see what the spin is.
Based on my limited knowledge on the T theory, it suggests a raising price until the end of the right side of the T. After we passed the right end of the T, the market can go both higher and lower. The T theory simply makes no suggestion on how price may move after that point and until we find the next T.
ReplyDeleteHats off to the Dollar CITs for being correct 3 times in a row.
ReplyDeleteThe next 12/9-10 CIT indicates a stock market high which is close to Parker's Money Flow T which points out potential trend change around 12/8. The 12/16 CIT also matches Terry's projection of a stock market low 12/13-17. It looks like all indicators are showing similar conclusion.
The next 2 weeks would be very interesting.
Lake,
ReplyDeleteMy cycle work shows turn dates of 12/2, 12/7, and 12/20. So if we got a double top on 2 & 7 followed by a crash into 20 that would rescue most of the picture being painted here.
Norm
Parker
ReplyDeleteI am waiting to hear how your momentum indicators look this morning. Much to my surprise, my Momentum Change indicators have produced a new Buy signal as of the close yesterday. My indicators moved into the Buy column around 2:00pm, but not with enough authority until the numbers posted after the close. Not sure what this means in terms of the anticipated decline off the expiration of the MFI T's and the last A/D T #13.
My Gut is telling me that the Fed Intervention is overwhelming some very reliable and productive trading strategies.
I will be keeping very tight stops. However, Investors should stay our of this market.. our Momentum Change indicators produced a Sell signal 4/26/2010 at 1215, which we used to move investor money into short term Government debt (VFITX) where it remains. Only traders should be in this market, and they should be very careful.
Bill
Bill, excellent advice. When in doubt, stay out. Another opportunity will be along momentarily. Appreciate your insights.
ReplyDeleteBill
ReplyDeleteI'm watching the ~1202 level. If it holds, I think we are moving significantly higher, perhaps a retest of old highs. If it fails, then this breakout has probably failed.
1202-03 would be a good long entry because your stop can be quite tight.
The S&P Money Flow T projects and end date of December 8.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteDoes this change your Dec 6 date to Dec 8. I know it isn't real precise, but seems like there is more consensus on Dec. 8 being a turn than Dec. 6 right now.
Fwiw, I have 12/7 as one possible High
ReplyDeleteFred
ReplyDeleteI posted a turn date of "12/6-8".
That's because I had treasuries bottoming 12/6, gold topping 12/7 and S&P topping 12/8. The S&P date is also confirmed by the VXX Money Flow T, showing a 12/8 low.
Money Flow Ts are not always precise, and can be a couple days off.
I can verify that Parker said the Money Flow T gives a US stock top around Dec 8.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, the 75 days cycle method gives a selling climax commence on Dec 6. This additional information may cause confusion. Personally, I consider the Money Flow T as Parker's primary tool and the 75 days cycle is additional information to support the Money Flow T.
No matter whether it is Dec 8 or 7 or even 6. +/- 1 or 2 days is close enough. We are making a prediction on something everyone in the world participates. I would not expect an exact hit. Close enough is good enough.
Just my 2 cents.