Kind Words from Terry Laundry, Founder of T Theory

"Parker has sent me what I consider to be the most important refinements to T Theory I have ever received from anyone in an e-mail . . . which he calls Tweaking the 13th Advance Decline T." September 29, 2010

"Parker has sent me a very interesting concept which is the NY Advance Decline line divided by the put-call ratio . . . What he's done is introduce the idea of sentiment." September 15, 2010

"Parker discovered the Money Flow Ts . . . This is something like the Holy Grail in T Theory. You are always looking for something that will help you refine the peak date." October 17, 201

"Money Flow Ts are probably the greatest new thing I have seen in 20 years in terms of time symmetries." December 5, 2010.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

$$ T Theory VO for Week of Jan 18-21

Last week's Volume Oscillator for reference
1/10 = -28
1/11 = -16
1/12 = 12
1/13 = -6
1/14 = 13


This week's VO
1/18 = -3
1/19 = -50
1/20 = -53
1/21 = -41

This post will be updated nightly throughout the week, so check back periodically for new information.
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28 comments:

  1. TeichJanuary 18, 2011 at 6:20 PM

    Hi Parker.

    What is your latest estimate for the top in SPX? End of Jan?

    Thanks very much.

    ReplyDelete
  2. BillJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:45 PM

    Parker

    Just to let you know, although my Momentum Change indicators are still on the Buy generated on 12/1, I kicked out the remaining long positions this morning around 10:00am as I did not like the action in the market.

    The momentum change signals have been flashing danger for the past 2 weeks, but have not yet flipped to Sell. Even though our recommendations are now 100% in cash, I will not have any short recommendations until the Momentum Change indicators actually change to Sell.

    Best to Your Trading.

    Bill

    ReplyDelete
  3. PositionSizingJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:30 PM

    Thanks, Bill

    ReplyDelete
  4. SCJanuary 19, 2011 at 4:39 PM

    For those who haven't visited Bill's blog, it is highly recommended. Bill has an excellent trading system with proven superior result.

    ReplyDelete
  5. JackJanuary 19, 2011 at 5:16 PM

    Yeah Bill me too. we must have the exact same system. I always sell right at the top, you know, when I just do not like the market action. Then I buy the bottom tick. Unless I go short. Nothing like to posting after the fact about great calls. Brilliant.

    ReplyDelete
  6. QuyJanuary 19, 2011 at 8:28 PM

    Parker - I assume today's VO will be worse than the -28 centerpost 7 days ago. If that's the case, does that mean Terry drew the centerpost too soon ? That could also mean the small T could end closer to your 2/24 MF end date ?

    ReplyDelete
  7. PositionSizingJanuary 19, 2011 at 9:52 PM

    Quy

    Could be - we'll see what Terry has to say on Sunday. I don't even know yet!

    ReplyDelete
  8. JackJanuary 19, 2011 at 10:13 PM

    With the dedicated POMO $ coming on the table it is difficult to see the big players going away. Using last weeks logic and assuming today is the Osc low then 2/25 looks about right.

    ReplyDelete
  9. PositionSizingJanuary 19, 2011 at 10:28 PM

    These 2 facts are indisputable:

    It has been 26 trading days since the VO high of 79 on December 10.

    26 trading days from today is February 25.

    ReplyDelete
  10. JackJanuary 20, 2011 at 4:24 PM

    -52.8.... looking for rising bottom but not yet

    ReplyDelete
  11. BillJanuary 20, 2011 at 11:16 PM

    Jack

    You don't really have all the information you would need to make a comment like that. If you go to my blog... http://momentumchanges.blogspot.com you will see that I am very up front with my signals. Although I have only been posting for the past nearly 3 months, you will see that the recommendations are timely and based on real time prices when the post is published. check the date and time log.

    Bill

    ReplyDelete
  12. alextheredJanuary 21, 2011 at 11:17 AM

    Parker, can you give us your thoughts on silver? It is at moving average support also 27 is prior resistance and should act as support now.

    ReplyDelete
  13. JosephJanuary 23, 2011 at 7:51 AM

    Parker,

    It is great to see your contributions to TL's weekly postings. But this week I can't see the divergence between the MFI and price action in the weekly gld chart or the daily uup chart. On the other hand, I certainly see the divergence in the jjc chart. Does anyone else see the required divergence in the gld and uup charts?

    joe

    ReplyDelete
  14. Gold_GerbJanuary 23, 2011 at 9:40 AM

    ..enjoyed Sunday's update, but I disagree on the GLD. Maybe you can comment on my observation using the daily. which worked quite well!
    http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2011/01/gld-mfi.html
    -GG

    ReplyDelete
  15. PositionSizingJanuary 23, 2011 at 10:01 AM

    Hi Joseph

    On the weekly GLD chart, the MFI peaked the week of November 8. GLD made higher highs the week of December 6 while the MFI was retreating. This is divergence.

    Likewise, on the UUP daily chart, the MFI bottom was October 8. UUP made a lower low on November 4, but the MFI was going higher. This is divergence.

    ReplyDelete
  16. JosephJanuary 23, 2011 at 10:10 AM

    Thanks for the reply, Parker. It just seemed to me that the prices and indicators were making the same general patterns, but I can see if you look more closely, you can seem some divergence.

    joe

    ReplyDelete
  17. investJanuary 23, 2011 at 12:39 PM

    Am trying to get a handle on oil and natural gas using USO, OIL and UNG with Money Flow and am frustrated. Would appreciate your taking a look at these foundation commodities. Maybe coal to?
    Been lurking for some time. You are very creative and observant.

    ReplyDelete
  18. JackJanuary 23, 2011 at 1:25 PM

    ...the bottom line or is it the top line (for now)...top 1335ish on Mar 1ish. Strong POMO week. SPX to new highs would show the way. Shorts were feeling strong last week. Could help fuel a move up.... WWS

    ReplyDelete
  19. PositionSizingJanuary 23, 2011 at 3:15 PM

    invest

    USO, UNG etc. do such a horrible job of tracking the underlying commodity that I don't even look at them.

    ReplyDelete
  20. investJanuary 23, 2011 at 3:22 PM

    Agree, from my experience.
    Any one have other ideas?

    ReplyDelete
  21. investJanuary 23, 2011 at 3:43 PM

    DBO seems to suggest a top next week in oil?

    ReplyDelete
  22. 1January 24, 2011 at 12:18 AM

    hmmm...

    it looks like copper is making a diversion with the spx...seriously do not like that.. and the Mcclean has lower to go.. i don't see a cycle low here.. too early in my estimation

    this may be an inversion coming up.. next couple days will decide it... exciting stuff.

    thanks for your analysis Parker.. great blog! may not always agree with it.. but it's a great framework from which to make your own decisions

    ReplyDelete
  23. UnknownJanuary 24, 2011 at 9:42 AM

    Parker,

    How do you reconcile MF Ts giving different dates when using GLD and then the actual futures contract? Same for the SPY and the ES futures contract.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  24. UnknownJanuary 24, 2011 at 9:45 AM

    Parker,

    In the gold GLD chart that Laundry posted on 22 Jan, you used a weekly chart. If you use a daily chart, the three points are 29 July, 01 Oct, and 4 Dec, which is within two days of the present peak of 139.48. John Woodward

    ReplyDelete
  25. BillHJanuary 24, 2011 at 11:43 AM

    Parker

    Since the DOW is leading this POMO driven market, I thought you might have some thoughts on this MFI T for the Dow. It looks like it is looking for a top the end of this month, rather than the broader indexes and the mid Feb top.

    Inquiring minds want to know!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42018635019&a=165933847

    Bill

    ReplyDelete
  26. PositionSizingJanuary 24, 2011 at 2:04 PM

    Paul

    Can you link some charts to illustrate your point? I don't trade futures.

    John

    Yes - the MFT on the GLD daily chart ended on December 7. I wrote about that here in November. It nailed the top. We've been consolidating ever since.

    Bill

    I'm aware of the anomaly. There's also a late Jan/early Feb MFT expiration if you start at the Flash Crash and use the September MFI peak on the S&P daily. In addition, as I detailed last week, there's a late January MFT expiration on the 30 minute S&P chart. Trust me, I have my eyes and ears open to all possibilities.

    ReplyDelete
  27. UnknownJanuary 24, 2011 at 8:49 PM

    Parker,

    I use e-signal for my charts. Not sure how to find free futures charts online with MF. Can I email them to you?

    Paul

    ReplyDelete
  28. PositionSizingJanuary 25, 2011 at 1:04 AM

    Sure Paul

    It's positionsizing/at/yahoo

    ReplyDelete

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