The S&P bull run from November 1, 2009 to January 19, 2010 lasted 47 trading days.
The bull run from February 5, 2010 to April 26, 2010 lasted 54 trading days.
The bull run from August 31, 2010 to November 5, 2010 lasted 47 trading days.
The current bull run started on December 1, 2010.
For the record, 47 trading days later is February 7. 54 trading days later is February 16.
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Mr T's lows are 72.5 days spread with at peak 15 prior on avg. 2/15 peak for this cycle.
ReplyDeleteSmall T yields a 3/1.
Sometimes we see what we look for and he sample is very small.
ZH goes with impossible to be short until May when a new crisis will be need for QE3 justification. I am in this camp.
Corrections will be brief and a buying op.
The teleprompter says fast trains are the answer so what can possibly go wrong.
Parker - On the GLD MF end date of 2/14, do you think it'll close higher than the 12/7 close ? Reason I'm asking is it has 50 dma as resistance. However all the SPX or GLD MF end dates that you've done in the past showed they indeed closed higher than previous highs.
ReplyDeleteThanks for everything you've done to educate us.
Since March 2009, the longest rallies have then been met by at least a 5% correction. We have had 5 rallies of 9 weeks or more.
ReplyDelete9 weeks - 1 time (started week ending 3/13/09)
10 weeks - 3 times (started weeks ending
7/17/09, 11/06/09, 9/3/10)
11 weeks - 1 time (April, 2010 high)
We are currently on week 9 of this rally...starting week ending 12/03/10.
ALSO..............
ReplyDeleteThe next GANN fixed turn date is FEB 8th to the 10th.........
On Gold:
ReplyDeleteIs there a way to use MFI to project a low from the Dec 7th top, Parker?
Tx!
Achal
ReplyDeleteMFTs work in trending markets. Since gold's been consolidating, it's tough to draw one.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteSeveral weeks ago you mentioned 1/28 as a day the market would likely see a top...and it appears you may be right here...great call. We could always go to a nominal new high next week after a couple of down days, but this has the makings of a pattern for a big decline. Plus, if we make a higher weekly high next week, that would be 10 weeks and be in line with other rallies.
FOR THE TRADERS OUT THERE!
ReplyDeleteI posted this months ago, time to pay attention into this setback...........could be a lot of money to be made! Good Hunting!!!!
"The alternative adjusted forecast has
the market advancing, but behaving a little choppy October 2010 through the
end of January 2011. A very strong rally begins February and lasts through
the end of March with short-term weakness going into June and a final
advance into August."
DOW.........
ReplyDeletePrice went against the Gann Dead Zone at 1208 area ...................looking for 1171 and then 1156!~ Good trading!
Thanks Fred.
ReplyDeleteNext week's action will be informative.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteThe SP500 has 3 possible MFI tops: late Dec., Nov 8th and Sept 20th. Can any of these be used as a center post to the July 2nd bottom to make a Money Flow T?
TIA,
Joe
Parker,
ReplyDeleteRegarding Gold, Would it be correct to say that GLD's coming top in the middle of February be greater than the tops of December? In your opinion, where, as far as price, do you see GLD topping in the middle February?
Thanks Buddy!
Hi usacoder
ReplyDeleteNov 8 is not a Money Flow T centerpost because even though the MFI made a top, so did price, and they both fell away afterwords.
To be a center post, the Money Flow Index peak needs to come before the price peak, such that there is divergence (ie Money Flow Index starts to fall as price continues to rise).
On Stockcharts using a 14 period setting on the daily chart, I get Sept 21, 2010 and January 6, 2011 as natural Money Flow T center posts.
*************
Cool Loser
I would be surprised if GLD did not at least match its December top in February, but stranger things have happened. Nothing in technical analysis works 100% of the time.
I understand. Thanks for the reply and all the work you've done educating us.
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteI've followed Terry Laundry's T theory for about a year now and I can see there's truth and insight to it regarding market trends and gold's bright future. I'm only recently becoming acquainted with your work. Regarding Gold, after the February top we're assuming GLD will make, and according to T Theory's May/June larger top for GLD and TGLDX, where between now and then do you see a good buying opportunity for GLD. I suppose my real question is what criteria are needed to establish another back-loaded Money Flow T for GLD?
Thanks Parker.
2 predictions:
ReplyDelete1. We are about to see a USD rally and a commodity crash. Yes hard to believe but it will happen. Time to short oil, gold, silver on this miracle bounce. If gold closes lower tomorrow look out.
2. MFT will disappear from Terry's vocabulary...because they simply do not work.
Cool Loser
ReplyDeleteSince 2000 (with the exception of the 2008 dive), the best buying opportunities for Gold come when it retraces back to (or near) it's 60 week moving average.
I concur with Terry about a May top for Gold. The highest potential price target my Gann charts support for that period is ~1605/oz.
GOLD............
ReplyDeleteI posted months ago on my analysis leading to a surprize for most Gold bulls.........
The GANN Gold Mass Pressure chart does not show a bull market to continue but rather the opposite........it was spot on for 2010!
One thing is for sure. Not everyone weighing in with an opinion will be right. Only time will tell...
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteGiven the current data on GLD, do you think we've got another money flow T in the making if GLD continues with its rising bottoms patterns and breaks into the green RSI in the next few weeks? If I'm right about this and the Money Flow T establishes a center post in the next few weeks, it could mean that the right side of the T would indicate a May top, in line with your prediction. It sure looks like it has potential to me but I wanted your opinion.