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"Parker has sent me a very interesting concept which is the NY Advance Decline line divided by the put-call ratio . . . What he's done is introduce the idea of sentiment." September 15, 2010

"Parker discovered the Money Flow Ts . . . This is something like the Holy Grail in T Theory. You are always looking for something that will help you refine the peak date." October 17, 201

"Money Flow Ts are probably the greatest new thing I have seen in 20 years in terms of time symmetries." December 5, 2010.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

$$ Silver Support

Silver is in danger of closing below its 20-day moving average for the first time in over four months.

SLV is trading at 28.12 currently.  If the carnage continues, I anticipate strong support at the 50-day moving average which is 27.16 for SLV.  There is also top bottom support in this $27.11 - 27.17 region as these were the high closes in November.  Former resistance becomes support.
Posted by at

11 comments:

  1. UnknownJanuary 5, 2011 at 10:01 AM

    USD is strong today - what's up with that??

    ReplyDelete
  2. DanielBJanuary 5, 2011 at 10:29 AM

    The dollar still looks to be in a bull flag and I've been watching for a break above the flag's upper trendline. If it does and the market gives a reversal signal, then I'll put on a short position. If it doesn't, the USD may just bounce down again.

    The FOMC minutes came out and of course bond buying will continue. TLH (10yr) and TLT (20yr) have both broken lower trendlines. I'll go short one of them if they're still in that condition at the end of the day.

    I closed out a short on AEM yesterday that I'd held for a week or two. It's lower today and I would have made more profit, but it was a nice one anyways and I'm happy to take a nice profit when I see it. Good luck everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  3. JustSignalsJanuary 5, 2011 at 11:07 AM

    Parker...
    I don't trade or follow SLV but I prepared an astro chart and compared it to a price chart of SLV...I did this because of the comment Norm made about the blue price line on the astro chart not being the actual price but a relative price chart instead...
    The chart is interesting in that it does rhyme...
    http://bit.ly/eGd4Vr

    Scott...
    You can see that on Dec 22nd I posted a chart of the USD and it forecasted this reasonably well...
    http://bit.ly/e79yIH

    ReplyDelete
  4. normJanuary 5, 2011 at 12:15 PM

    JustSignals,

    Could you give us an explanation of how you get the values for plotting the blue lines?

    Thanks,
    Norm

    ReplyDelete
  5. JustSignalsJanuary 5, 2011 at 12:43 PM

    Norm...
    Please see my last comment on Parkers Blog...
    http://bit.ly/esCoaR

    ReplyDelete
  6. normJanuary 5, 2011 at 1:03 PM

    JS,

    "The best answer I can give you is that you are right, but, I do not know the formula...So unfortunately I cannot pass that along to you...Except that I think that it is the difference between two MA's..."

    So you are not calculating the values yourself. Where do you get the data?

    Norm

    ReplyDelete
  7. UnknownJanuary 5, 2011 at 3:18 PM

    Some ways to look at Gold Correction & Silver

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

    Gold ... Will it correct or not?

    The news and market buzz has recently been about whether or not Gold is going to correct. It hasn't signaled that it will go into correction yet, but it is getting close and here is something to watch for ...

    Today's chart is pretty simple, but also pretty accurate. It involves using a Relative Strength indicator set at 30 days. I like 30 day periods on the RSI because you can accurately draw trend lines that correlate with the support and resistance lines that you would draw on an index or stock. This typically holds true unless there is a trading range.

    The best single focus is on the actual level of the Relative Strength ... above 50 being positive and below 50 being negative. The RSI indicator goes from 0 to 100, which is why 50 is the neutral line.

    As a trader, I like to see whether something is positive or negative, right away without any interpretation. So, I recast the RSI as a zero based indicator by making a new indicator that subtracts a numerical value of 50 from the daily RSI reading. That is what we have done to the chart below, so let's now discuss the chart.

    Note that the GLD ETF is used on this chart with a zero based RSI. The first focus should be on when the RSI goes below zero and when it reverses and goes back up above zero. I marked these areas with vertical lines.

    You can see that from last July to early August, the GLD broke its trend line to the downside and you knew this was a problem for Gold because the zero based RSI had gone negative.

    After that, GLD had broken its resistance line to the upside, but it didn't have a confirmation from the RSI. And then, on August 5th, the RSI broke above its resistance line and it went positive at the same time. That was the confirmation for the upside.

    Now, let's fast forward to yesterday on the chart. Just as the press is making noise about Gold falling, it is facing a support test on its RSI. Note the current support line that I highlighted ... yesterday close brought it very close to that support line, so expect that the support line will be tested today.

    But, this current pattern is also a little bit more complicated. First, falling below the support line will be a Caution/Alert condition. Falling below the zero line would be a Danger condition "if".

    "If" what??? If the GLD also falls below its support line while the RSI is negative and trending lower, then you have a scenario to have a correction instead of merely a pullback. Until then, a negative RSI would be "an under duress" condition. (A pullback can be a down move that doesn't change the trend to a different direction.)

    So now, it is very possible that BOTH support lines will be tested within the next 48 hours, so keep an eye on the 30 RSI if you are a Gold investor.

    (FYI: Today's gold analysis is posted as a technical analysis consideration for investors. We don't follow gold on our daily, paid subscriber updates. We do post daily updates with a zero based RSI on stock indexes in combination with our stock market models. )

    ReplyDelete
  8. PositionSizingJanuary 5, 2011 at 7:46 PM

    Thanks Marshall

    I have a lot of experience with RSI, but I usually look at the 14 period version.

    It's currently at 45.8. Usually, 38-40 is the floor for up trends. So if the correction continues, we should either see 38-40 serve as support, or if it fails, it will signal a potential trend change.

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  9. UnknownJanuary 6, 2011 at 8:25 AM

    Marshall,

    I used to track Marty Chenard's Stocktiming.com but no more. Why? Because for the entire 2008 bear market he was waiting for the perfect setup to go short, but he never pulled the trigger. True, he stayed out of the market, but he missed a wonderful opportunity to make some serious profits.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Raj Time and CyclesJanuary 6, 2011 at 11:13 AM

    Stockmarket forecast 2011 and the next Master Cycle High

    http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/01/stockmarket-forecast-2011-and-next.html

    The Master Cycle (MC) (click on chart to enlarge) became active again on 11/1/10 and it predicted: 11/1L, 11/09H, 11/16L, 11/26H, 11/29L, 12/6L, 12/8H, 12/9L, 12/13H, 12/16L, 12/28H, 12/29L


    next High is on:


    Friday-Monday 1/7-10 High


    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OSfvk1xrysQ/TSXyn6aivfI/AAAAAAAAGEY/U__64QsP2zk/s1600/MC.gif

    The MC does not see this as a final High, but as the next swing High. This is supported by the next Astro CIT on 1/7/2011, when Mars will leave Rahu (The Moon's North Node, which causes eclipses) and the Sagittarius House.

    If we do see a 1/10 High, we should see 1/11 as a large down day.


    Stock market forecast 2011: The MC suggest we see a January High, but generally we should see a strong 1st Half year in 2011 and weaker in the 2nd Half of the year.


    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_OSfvk1xrysQ/TSXz4eyQshI/AAAAAAAAGEc/QOM8hB5kGkA/s1600/bkx+Daily.gif
    The daily Banks Index (BKX) (click on chart to enlarge) has been in a bullish Up channel, ever since the 3/6/09 Lows. We made a 11/23/10 channel Low and have rallied strong ever since. The Banks are bullish above and bearish below this Key Channel support Line, which is at 45.80 today. The Banks have been moving sideways for the last couple of months and have started to expand on the upside. The Banks have been relative weaker to the other indices and should be watched closely. We tested Long Term 12/31 yearly support and the 8/31 yearly Lows at 42.70 on 8/25/10.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousJanuary 6, 2011 at 11:42 AM

    Parker do you have any thoughts for Gold MFT? If the T is correct where would you see this decline in Gold end?

    ReplyDelete

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