Last week's Volume Oscillator for reference
1/3 = 291/4 = 9
1/5 = 23
1/6 = -5
1/7 = -20
This week's VO
1/10 = -28
1/11 = -16
1/12 = 12
1/13 = -6
1/14 = 13
This post will be updated nightly throughout the week, so check back periodically for new information.
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Posts
Break of the CBU? Yes but....
ReplyDeletehttp://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TS5PIUnreEI/AAAAAAAAJqY/flFU1SNCkSc/s1600-h/WeeklyEMASpread%5B2%5D.png
ReplyDeleteAnyone consider that we might put in another low near or around the end of the month instead of hi?
ReplyDeletegin: Yes, Bill McLaren is looking at the possibility of a Jan 29 low. See http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/249/1/January-13-2011-mclarenreportnetau/Page1.html
ReplyDeleteThanks Bob,
ReplyDeleteHe could very well be right. With all the POMO going on it's hard to say if we'll get much of a pullback. It could very well be a very fast 2-4 day event if it happens in the next 2-3 weeks.
Anyway I'm pulling my horns in a fair deal but no shorts yet. Maybe if we hold into Tues I'll try the short side for a day or 2 and see if we get a dip.
Any updates on gold?
ReplyDeleteBottomed for now?
Congratulations on hooking up with Terry.
ReplyDeleteThanks Jack.
ReplyDeleteParker now that you've joined Terry will you continue your blog?
ReplyDeletePaker,
ReplyDeleteRegarding your updates on Terry's website, 3 questions:
1) I don't recall you calculating an MFT for the Sept 21 MFI top date. Why did you disregard it, since the correction May 6 - July 1 is much more significant than the November correction?
2) Just as you may have several center posts for the MFI, you could have more than one starting point for each center post. Why aren't you considering that? For example, for the center post (MFI top) of Sept 21 you can have at least 2 starting dates: May 6 and July 1. I would argue that May 25 be a valid 3rd possible low.
3) For each of these 3 possible starting points, and using Sept 21 as the mid-point, I calculate that the MFT top dates would be:
Feb 4, Jan 18, Dec 10.
Well Dec 10 has come and gone and nothing happened, so the July 1 low is not a good starting point. Jan 18 remains to be seen. But given that the May 6-July 1 is a more significant bottom than the November correction, the projected Feb 4 could be very significant since it is very close to your Jan 31 top for the Nov correction.
I have been watching T Theory for a while and after seeing the last post, it looks to me like all that is being calculated is the static cycle of choice along with the half cycle........when a smaller cycle or wheel is in place the cycle negates and the comments are ignored and then the author goes back to the longer cycle, as it will always be more predictive as the larger wheel is always in control! Not sure what is new in this....one can use any indicator as a visual but in reality nothing is new. Gann did this 60 years a go buy numbers, astro, cycles etc. Just an observation!
ReplyDeleteEileen
ReplyDeleteTo be determined.
Parker, I know that I am not alone in saying that I hope you do not quit this blog. I also reviewed your post on Terry's site. The most important question that I have is on the $spx chart. You "started" the analysis with a start point of Nov. 16. The MFI did not bottom until about Nov 29. This is what I thought I learned from you. Where did I go wrong. I am willing to listen and learn more. Many thanks for your contributions to date.
ReplyDeleteGuess I won't hear from you anymore, as I won't visit Terry's site anymore...just costs too much time and wrong predictions for me to bother anymore. Stick to the charts don't try to predict the future. Terry straddled gold so he can't be wrong, but my sense is that he is already.
ReplyDeleteTime symmetry was an interesting concept, I admit, but I can't justify advances requiring to last as long as declines (by whatever measure is used). I've now reviewed the Oct-Dec Moneyflow forecasts and they just don't hold water for me. In my opinion, simple time passing can't account for liquidity, monetary policy decisions, events that cause fear or greed, disasters: natural or caused, the ebb and flow of confidence, and other such things. The Oscillator bottoms are very accurate. I watch them closely. Even being able to accurately call one direction can spell huge profits if you have a method to take profits along the way and not get shaken out until it's over. It's easy to make trends fit in hindsight (I've done it a lot) and see that it worked if you just adjust this piece here or that piece there, but if there's no way to know which is reliable when you're planning ahead, there's going to be headaches. Good luck to everyone.
ReplyDeleteDanielB
ReplyDeleteOn October 29, I wrote about an early December end to the Money Flow T in Gold, and projected a price of $1415/oz based on Gann.
In November, I clarified that I expected December 6-8 to mark the end of Money Flow Ts in gold (top), stocks (top) and treasuries (bottom).
What happened?
Gold topped at $1430 on December 7 and has been consolidating ever since.
TLT bottomed on December 15 and has been consolidating ever since.
The S&P topped at 1235 on December 7, then consolidated in a range of 1235 +/- 1% for the next 8 trading days, then broke out.
I'm sorry if these forecasts didn't "hold water" for you.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteI am not familiar with Gann lines.
Can you explain how they work, and how you computed on Oct 29 the projected top for Gold to be $1415 on Dec 7 ?
Thanks!
Achilles
ReplyDeleteI used Gann Square of 9. As I said on October 29:
A 180 degree turn on the Gann wheel from gold's $1226.40 high in early December 2009 is almost identical to a 240 degree turn on the Gann wheel from the $1030.80 high in March of 2008 = $1415/oz.
Achilles
ReplyDeleteTo keep it simple, just look at he measured moves up from the swing lows.............no mystery. Gann talked of these 1X1 moves in all his work! Good trading!
Parker,
ReplyDeleteCongratulations and all the best with your new venture with Terry, which must be exciting.
Here is the Master Cycle outlook for the next week: 1/18H. 1/26L. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
The Master Cycle (MC) has been active and in the markets since 11/1/10 Lows.
Most recently, it called for a 1/7-10 High (#1 on the chart) and a brief pullback into 1/11 Low (#2 on the chart), which was 1 TD earlier, when calculated in Calendar days (see previous posts).
The Master Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) is now looking for a Top today, 1/18 High, then a decline to 1/26 Low. 1/18 is also a double Timing CIT as it is both a geometric and Solar CIT. The means 1/18 is both a Time and Cycle Cluster and an important turning point to watch.
The MC projected Price magnitude is not always assured, but we get a general idea what to expect. This matches other Cycles I am watching as well.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_OSfvk1xrysQ/TTWmOqqUVbI/AAAAAAAAGHY/GGA8fSfEvhk/s1600/MC.gif
#1: 1/7-10 High
#2: 1/11 Low
#3: 1/18 High
#4 1/26 Low
For 1/18:
ReplyDeleteIntraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 1/18/11: 10.35, 11.30, 1.45, 2.55 pm Eastern
Intraday Cycle: 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.10L or Inverse
Parker,
ReplyDeleteHow did you choose the 180 degree and 240 degree for the Gann wheel? Are you using software to match price to your time projections?
http://mysite.verizon.net/bonniehill/pages/w.d.gann.html
ReplyDeleteAchilles
ReplyDeleteNo software.
In fact, I've never attempted to use Gann to forecast time, although he says time is most important.
I don't want to get too heavy into Gann here, as I consider some of my Gann discoveries to be proprietary, but I noticed that 1415 was an important stop on both the 1030 and 1226 Gann wheels. Whenever 2 separate Gann wheels suggest the same price might be resistance, I take notice.
Parker,
ReplyDeleteI can't find a decent source of info as to how to CONSTRUCT and USE a Gann wheel.
Can you explain how you constructed the Gann Price Wheel in your posting on Gold on Oct 29?
Achilles
ReplyDeleteBy Gann wheel I mean Gann Square of 9.
You are asking me to divulge how I build my Gann wheels, which is something I discovered through lots of hard work and trial and error. I have shared so much on this blog for free, but I don't wish to give this away.
I will point you to Connie Brown's book TA for the Trading Professional which has a chapter on Gann. It's one of the pieces of the puzzle I used in making my discovery. You may find it helpful.
That's about all I'm going to say on the matter.
Parker.
ReplyDeleteIt would not matter if you gave the golden goose……….in my experience a person has to do the work first before he even recognizes the answer in the first place! Thanks again for all your effort, it’s great to have had a hard working site to bounce ideas, as trading is repetitive once one masters the technical side! You will be a great asset on Terry’s site as you are very direct with your thoughts and forecasts! Best wishes!
Thanks j!
ReplyDelete