Kind Words from Terry Laundry, Founder of T Theory

"Parker has sent me what I consider to be the most important refinements to T Theory I have ever received from anyone in an e-mail . . . which he calls Tweaking the 13th Advance Decline T." September 29, 2010

"Parker has sent me a very interesting concept which is the NY Advance Decline line divided by the put-call ratio . . . What he's done is introduce the idea of sentiment." September 15, 2010

"Parker discovered the Money Flow Ts . . . This is something like the Holy Grail in T Theory. You are always looking for something that will help you refine the peak date." October 17, 201

"Money Flow Ts are probably the greatest new thing I have seen in 20 years in terms of time symmetries."
December 5, 2010.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

$$ Today's Advance Decline Oscillator Breakout & Its Impact on the Forecast

Today I received a couple of excellent questions in the "comments" section of my post about T12:

do you have any comments on the breakout in your oscilator today? is this a new T? or will it form a bearish T?

Here is what the reader is asking about:

















As you can see, there was a breakout today in my Advance Decline Momentum Oscillator, interrupting the divergence pattern that was in progress since September 13.  This is not unusual.  Something very similar happened in March of this year:

















If you'll notice, there was divergence from March 5 to late March, but price kept powering up.  The oscillator breakout we saw today is similar to the oscillator breakout on April 14.

Now, in April we got some divergence off that April 14 oscillator peak into the final price top on April 26.  But then, the Money Flow T (see this morning's video) was projecting an April 26 top.  Here, the Money Flow T is projecting an October 13 top.  So we may not get any further divergence - we'll have to see.


If we do get some more divergence here based off today's oscillator peak, what is likely happening is that we are forming a major top where October 20 will be at the middle of that divergence.  So, instead of a cycle low on October 20, it will turn out to be a cycle peak.  As you can see, the next date on that cycle is December 13 which is approximately where the nulled echo low should fall.  

If it plays out this way, the late August low to the October 20 peak to the December 13 low pattern will look very similar to the pattern on the second chart above - early February low to the mid April peak to the early July low.

To summarize, I am currently expecting one of two scenarios to unfold: 

1.  October 13 marks an interim top; we correct into October ~20 then push higher into the second week of November before declining rapidly into the nulled echo low.

2.  October 13 starts a fresh divergence topping process where October 20 will be the middle of the divergence, suggesting a final price top for T13 on or about ~October 27.  From there, there is a short term correction and then a rally into November 12 that falls short of the October high and fails, leading to a steep decline into the nulled echo low.  Basically, a fractal of what happened in April-May.

We should know one way or the other very soon.

7 comments:

  1. thanks for the response. another question: shouldnt the continued divergence continue to push the bottom date out further? the 20th was calculated on the 7th, now we have 4 more days of divergence. Shouldnt that pull the center of the T 2 more days to the right, which puts the bottom 4 days later? (26th)

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  2. Joe

    If October 13 was the top (Scenario 1) and we now get a fairly substantial correction, October 20 might be early for the cycle low based on the reasons you have identified.

    However, if today's oscillator breakout starts a fresh divergence topping pattern (Scenario 2), then October 20 should be at the middle of the new divergence pattern.

    In that regard, it's not uncommon for the terminal wave of an up trend to end with a symmetry like this: low to low = low to high. Or in this case: early July low to late August low = late August low to October 20 high. I'll do a video on this phenomenon some day.

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  3. PS

    I want to thank you for your fresh way of looking at things. For some time but not having the time, I've wanted to use T theory in a different way.

    Thanks again.

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  4. I'm a long term T Theory follower and appreciate your work and your video explanations.

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  5. I am also a longtime Terry follower. This is excellent work - keep it coming.

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  6. Thanks for the comments all.

    I owe everything to Terry. If I have seen a little further, it is by standing on the shoulders of a giant.

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  7. Scenario II more likely. How can there be a low with all this upcoming POMO?

    October 15: 10/31/2014 – 9/30/2016
    October 18: 10/31/2016 – 8/15/2020
    October 20: 1/15/2011 – 2/15/2040
    October 22: 4/15/2013 – 9/30/2014
    October 26: 2/15/2021 – 8/15/2040
    October 28: 15/2012 – 3/31/2013
    November 1: 4/15/2013 – 9/30/2014
    November 4: 10/31/2014 – 9/30/2016
    November 8: 10/31/2016 – 8/15/2020

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