Looks like the S&P is winding up tight in a symmetrical triangle. Note the convergence of all the various moving averages. Whichever way the triangle resolves should show us the market direction over the next couple of days.
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yep.. just the time I set the chart up for 5 minutes, drew the lines, and uploaded the cart.. baaaam.. the sucker blew out the top..
ReplyDeleteI guess that means we will be going up for another couple of days
by the way, how to post a chart with this blog.. I was going to post the chart with this post? here is the linkable url
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p86212870452&a=212133611
Bill
Bill
ReplyDeleteNothing is 100% fool proof. Head fakes are known to happen. But the odds favor a short term rise with that breakout. Particularly if it is confirmed on the line on close chart (which would occur at an intraday period close over ~1188).
As a subscriber to Stockcharts, I was able to cut and paste the link you provided and saw your chart. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if posting images in the comments section of Blogspot is possible.
now, now Mr Parker... you are preaching to the choir! As my Grandfather used to say "Bill, there are only two things in this world that are certain.. death and taxes"
ReplyDeleteLove your site, and your ideas. You keep showing us new things, but your sentiment indicator is genius. I have been back testing with it and it looks like you really have something.
(I have been trying to find an email address for you.. I have a couple of private questions)
Bill
you can reach me at billhider@gmail.com
ReplyDeleteas the end of a large rally, the danger increasingly lies in getting too cute with the short term and then miss the big move.
ReplyDeleteDP
I hate to say it, but it's do or die for t theory refinements tomorrow-10-27-2010.
ReplyDeleteTerry's timing being absolutely awful since last year- I am hoping for some sort of clarity. If not- I fear it's back to the drawing board, because this market is making us all look very stupid. That gap up and dump yesterday looked near perfect, but no continuation today means we could really be going much higher. Something telling me this December nulled echo low could invert, just like the last big days from t theory.
Dear Anonymous
ReplyDeleteFrom the big picture point of view (that long term rallies last approximately as long as cash build up phases), T Theory has stood the test of time.
I never once heard Terry say "Go short on August 26 and you'll be rich." I have never said "Go short on October 27."
To be clear, my refinements to T13 (which began in 2007) suggest an end date (not necessarily a peak) within several days of November 12, 2010.
Based on a variety of factors that I have explained at length elsewhere, I have theorized that a top may occur "on or about" October 27 based on my short range momentum oscillator.
No one has a crystal ball. The purpose of doing cycles work is to give you a window of time to start looking for confirmation of a reversal.
Clearly, you don't take a position until you get the confirmation. Once you do take a position, you minimize your risks with stop loss orders in case you are wrong.
No - I understand that no one has a crystal ball, but anyone who has followed some of terry's recent work and also trades the market waited for the initial may 20th conservative end date and got a BIG surprise -NO? I enjoy reading and following various market timing methods but lets not lose site of the fact that some of us wager real money on these moves.
ReplyDeleteIf you had held your nose, closed your eyes and waiting for the 2nd big ending date, august 26, not only did you feel at the time the market was really teetering but here a long T was ending. How do you not sell your longs?
If we are going to praise people when they are right, let's be fair and acknowledge when they have missed it. Am I the only one here that was fooled by the recent T projections? I seriously doubt it.
I have followed Terry and his T theory since I first found him in 1982. Over the years, I have paid more attention, and sometimes less attention to his work.. but I have never found a time when his thought did not produce a profit. It is easy to criticize.... and I have my own criticisms of some of his thoughts, but he has never led me astray. or should I say, he has never led me into a loss.
ReplyDeleteHis big ideas, with the A/D are spot one.. however, his shorter term timing is a little more sloppy. Meaning there is less accuracy in the very short term. If you re-read his reports in the Winter and early Spring, you will note that he was talking about a momentum peak in late April. That is the date that I was working with.....and most of the people I work with were in cash by late April. And invested in VFITX, not the VUSTX, at around $11.05
In order to refine the shorter term, I do my own momentum work, and my momentum work identified a late April top also. The investment capital is parked.. now all I am doing is trading with the trading money...and having a lot of fun and making money..and my friends and old clients love the action.
I am perhaps older than many of you.. but I used to hear old market traders talk about chasing elephants and missing the rabbits... and to learn to focus on the rabbits and be ready when the elephants come along. With Terry's guidance, It is possible to catch the elephants.....and rest comfortably with the corpus in storage, while I run around after the rabbits with the little guns. I will be chasing rabbits until the next A/D T forms, when I will get out the big guns again and catch another elephant.
Bill
Anonymous is not the only one who bet money in the wrong direction in August. I for one went against the system my friend designed in 2000 at long short timing when he got a signal to go long on August 30th and he bought QLD on that day, while I was still holding its opposite. He warned me I would only have a day or two before the uptrend got juice. I was reluctant to close my shorts, and go long because of Terry's work, despite the public track record of long short timing, which is a free site. He trades his own money and shares the timing signals if you sign up:
ReplyDeletehttp://long-short-timing.com/Equitytiming.aspx
His investment rules are well worth reading regarding market timing:
http://wwwlong-short-timing.web.officelive.com/InvestmentRules.aspx
I certainly don't blame Terry for my hesitation to act on the system I've been following at all. Terry doesn't encourage going short. He is a very conservative client money manager, and uses T theory more to avoid the big drops, limit mistakes, and position into things in a uptrend for a significant period of time. And he does a lot of work to find those things -- stocks, bonds, gold etc... T theory is not perfect but it is useful. And I like the way he has built a learning community around it, to share insights with each other.
Best,
Steve C.
Following Terry over the last year has been frustrating. Near the end of May, Terry unequivocally announced the start of a new bear market. He asserted that it would resemble a bowling ball bouncing down a flight of stairs. He also ridiculed the "Wrong Way Corrigans" who clung to a belief in a continued rally and recovery in equities (and yet he is also fond of taking shots at bearish Elliot Wavers). He stated, however, that stocks could see a rally into August 26th and that it would be possible for the S&P to achieve a new token high around that date.
ReplyDeleteTerry, however, was not the only market timer to make a call for an August top. Arch Crawford, Woody Dorsey and Peter Elides were all dead wrong. In fact, if you followed Crawford's recommendation to back the truck up on leveraged ETFs in August, you would be in serious pain.
Obviously Terry's T-13 calculation was off the mark and it has now been pushed back until after the election. Time will tell.
In fairness to Terry, he has not advocated for buying or shorting stocks. His focus has been limited to gold and a high-yield bond/Treasuries strategy. If you bought what he said he was buying, you would be up substantially since August.
It is a great feeling to go short and be right. Not many people you meet on the street sell stocks short and you feel like a master of the universe when you can tell your neighbor that you are making money hand over fist in a down market. Shorting, however, is frought with peril. I have learned this the hard way--again, and again, and again. I would not short any market unless you are confident with your own analysis, and to give a shout out to Parker and Terry, you get a green light from individuals with a proven track record or have shown that their work is worthy of consideration.
Terry's work is invaluable and extremely unique. His 30 years of experience in the markets makes his work worth following. I have found no ONE market commentator that always gets it right, especially in the short term. Money management is always the most important element to trading. There were many that were pointing to a late summer/fall resumption of this bear market, and they were all wrong, including Terry. Make no mistake, some of us made money, but to say you were perfectly out of the market in April and now you are killing it on these short term moves, I think you are in the minority. Hedge fund managers have been getting killed trying to time this market. I have always found catching the bigger, more important move is where the real money is- and it sure has been very difficult as of late.
ReplyDeleteSometimes the problem stems from those who are betting the bank on others and what they perceive others are saying. I have followed T Theory because at its core it makes sense. T Theory is not set up for short term long and short trading and never has been. Terry uses it to position into the next important asset and he has been highly successful at it. Has this years T Theory been frustrating, absolutely but it forces you to dig deeper to find new indicators (thank you Parker) and learn more aspects of what can differ in cycle work. I will tell you what I think is that the amount of money that has been flushed into the system temporarily influences and alters the cash buildup phase of this Theory. How can it not? The key is waiting for confirmation. If you are thinking that dates are solid then you are being foolish and just not paying attention. Hell if this thing worked to perfection and did not take any more diligent research and conceptualization then the markets would be that easy to cash in and out from. Not happening not now not ever. I am thankful that people like Terry and Parker see fit to engage us all and share these things. What the rest of us do with the knowledge rests on our shoulder not theres. As someone once said, "I don't share in your profits so I don't share in your losses."
ReplyDeleteAll I am saying is let's acknowledge when something works and doesn't work. I'm no Marty Schwartz but I'm no idiot either. I'm not asking for anyone to share in my losses, you probably all would be broke if I did. what I am saying is when someone is doing analysis, and remember, it's his analysis not mine, and is adamant about August 26th being the start of a big bad bear market- again, his date not mine, and that date turns into the start of an incredible rally, well- one has to at least question the methods, NO? That's all I am saying. Thank you Parker for your refinements.
ReplyDeleteBUT- I think this is an important point- when comments and analysis is posted on a blog, website, chat room, there needs to be some responsibility for that research. Lets be realistic - we are not doing this for pure entertainment, and its not presented that way. To say that T theory is not set up for short term trading is ridiculous, since every Sunday posting has a short term chart. To say that I shouldn't have bet money on a particular point in time when a T is destined to
end is also ridiculous, especially when it's mentioned EVERY week. I'm done- no tears, but let's not be condescending - I'm not an idiot.
A few counterpoints.
ReplyDeleteTerry has always ALWAYS maintained that his information are observations. Meaning there is no definitive truth to these observations. He calls them observations for that reason and has stated so repeatedly throughout the years.
The Short Term Chart has that name because it is short term compared to the AD T's that span years. He has repeatedly said that the shorter term T's are much less reliable and are not presented for short term trading.
This was the first time in over 6 years of listening to him where he has been so far off. So question his methods I would say no because it has been my experience that even though he appears to have been baffled by the August 26th top he has been dead on 90% of the time or better.
Finally, with everything so much out of sync why would you bet money on that date when everything clearly pointed to the fact that that particular analysis was dead in the water weeks before that date arrived.
I am sorry if you feel that my statement of facts come off as condescending. My main points are his information has been very reliable but his website is free and you have a choice whether to listen to him or not but the most imprtant point is you should be thinking for yourself irregardless of what Terry or anyone else posts. The sharing of profits and losses is something Parker prefaces his videos with and I though it reinforced the same idea that although he is providing some information you need to be diligent yourself becaus he is not responsible for how you use that info. I think I've said enough. Best of trading to you.
Jeff, Anon, and who ever else is posting on this thread. I just now caught the responses to my comments earlier....
ReplyDeleteI did not say Terry's short term observations were bad... I said that his short term observations were more sloppy and less accurate. I think many folks on this site and who are now following the Magic T are relatively new to T Theory, and many do not have the long term experience in reading or listening to Terry. He can be hard to follow at times. But his calls on the the big T's, for many years have been incredibility accurate. Both as to when to enter the risk trade, and when to exit the risk trade.
Terry has really over the years convinced me that that it is much more important to avoid losses than it is to make profits. That statement may sound condescending.. but it is the emotional shift that has to occur, at least in my experience, to become a successful investor. There is a lot of complaining about the T theory observations regarding the end of the T 13, and how that observation has been inaccurate. But lets back up a minute.
He successfully called the beginning of the new shortly after the market began it move, and at that time, he was expecting a top in the Spring of 2010. Terry has also taught me about momentum, and how most stocks make their best prices at the momentum peak, rather than at the price peak in the indexes. So, for me, his comments about momentum peaks gave me my targets. And I have been around long enough to know that I will never get the top. So I was selling all through late March and April. I did not get the top, but I made huge profits in FAGIX. And as I have said, I parked the money in short term government bond funds.
Then I set about trading.. all the short term stuff that is so much fun.. and so much harder to do, but very rewarding done right. Not with whole investment account, but with a portion.. up to 20% depending on risk tolerance. All that I care about now is that the Big capital is parked in a place earning nominal returns and is not exposed to loss. And that money will be available to invest when Terry "observes" the formation of the next A/D T
One last thought....Terry is valuable for a number of reasons, not just that he has been right a whole bunch of times, rather it is that he can change his mind about what is going on in the market. If you will remember, after the early April top and the May pull back, Terry said he was putting his investment clients back into the FAGIX. I passed....I know that the shorter term stuff he observes is not as accurate as the long term stuff. And my emotional attachment to the idea that not losing money is more important than making more money.
There is a lot more to say about trading short term.. and I am sure Parker will continue to offer us new ideas and threads where we can discuss these things.
As Tony Caldero says, "Best to your Trading"
Bill