Target is the dotted line. Patten invalidated if price rises back above Point 5. Note: Wave 5 is supposed to overshoot the trend line from 1-3. We'll see how this plays out.
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Parker, great call on this Wolfe wave pattern- visualizing patterns is really a right brain feature it seems! For whatever reason I am quick to identify triangles, megaphones, H&S, wedges but almost always miss the WWs -thanks for pointing this. And the 1-4 target line seems to attract price right on the lower megaphone line. Let's see how it goes.
ReplyDeleteParker,
ReplyDeleteI have a slightly different take: We are in a minor degree wave four of 3 of a potential ending diagonal pattern. The move would complete with a thrust up into the 1200 area (minor degree five of 3), likely on wednesday. From an Elliot Wave perspective off the August 31 low, that would be the top of a wave 3. Then we would have a similar degree wave 4 correction down to the area of around 1140, and then a fifth wave up into early November. The fifth wave up may or may not make a new high, but would have to highest profit potential for a short position, or a December put.
The 533 stochastic overlay I use on the weekly NYSI data, which is an intermediate trend indicator I use, went negative on Friday's close. This tends to be early by two to three weeks for a change in trend. So a trend change is likely in the next two to three weeks. This all tends to fit in well with Terry's T theory predictions. I don't like Elliot Wave independent of Terry's work, as it is a price based system and can lead to going off on unproductive money losing tangents. But in comjunction with Terry's system, it helps refine where the tops are actually likely to occur. Robert Prechter of EWI, has sucked wind and predicted a market downtrend about 4 times since September of 09, and people following him are very discouraged, and have lost money. It is unlikely when the trend change occurs in the next few weeks or so, that they will have the courage to act on it. But Prechter did call all the moves down off the October highs in 07 into the March 09 lows very well, called the bottom two weeks before it occurred. And called for a dramatic move up to at least 1000 in the SPX. After that he didn't do so well, because a price based system versus a time based system can easily lead you astray.
Another point Tim Wood, of CyclesMan, who I used to subscribe to, has studied the entire history of the Dow, and concluded that if this 4 year cycle tops on or before November, of 2010, then there is a 100% likelihood the next four year cycle low will be below the March 09, four year cycle low, providing further validation for Terry's 40 year cycle predictions.
Best,
Steve C
Steve C,
ReplyDeleteYou give us a target of 1200 for wave 3 and 1140 for wave 4. Can you give price levels for waves 1 & 2 in your count?
Thanks,
Norm
Parker, did you not have a theory or plan that
ReplyDeletethe S&p would rise into Oct 27th and then decline to a lower low, then rally a little to
a lower high, and then go down to mid Dec.??
That is still in play? Looks like the 27thwill be a high......Nick
It's not my intent to speak for Steve, but I would assume those levels would be the mid-August high and the late Aug/early Sept low for waves one and two of that degree.
ReplyDeleteI also agree in general with the things Steve said as my observations have been similar.
Just to add, there are many possible counts and Steve may have something different in mind. That is one of the problems with EW by itself, rather than in some kind of framework.
ReplyDeleteLTW,
ReplyDeleteSteve is counting from the August 31 low. I have a different count from the August 26 low that shows we are in wave 5 of 5 (wave 1-1065, 2-1049, 3-1149, 4-1137).
Nick
ReplyDeleteYes - once I saw the Money Flow T I suspected we had a cycle inversion and that was confirmed by my AD Oscillator breakout. The inversion meant that October 20 should be the center of a bearish divergence top instead of a bullish divergence bottom.
The first peak of the bearish divergence is October 13. I estimated that if October 20 was the center of the divergence, then ~October 27 should be the final "higher high" on price and "lower high" on the oscillator.
Turns out, we may get that second divergence peak as early as today.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteTim Wood is great. But I am confused with 4 yr cycle you mentioned topping before Nov 2010. When was his last bottom of 4 yr cycle.
Below is my little own cycle analysis -
There were three lows in 60-70s .. 1966 , 1970 , 1974 ... all lower after previous lower. 4 yrs apart each other ...major lower low that did not get invalidated is low of 1962 so again 4 yrs before above three lows started.
This time 2002, 2008, 2014 .... three possible lows ... 6 yrs apart ... (taking 2008 and not 2009 because many think 2008 is real panic low) .... going back 6 yrs before first of three lows is 1996 ... so 2014 low should remain above 1996 low .. which is around 600 .... And should go below 2008 low to satisfy lower lows within 3 lows ...
in 60-70s it was 4 yrs apart .. now its 6 yr apart .... if this is to be compared with those 60-70s then we are between 1970 and 1974. In between there was high in 1972 which mid year. Now because its 6 yr apart mid year is 2008 + 3 = 2011 ... In 1972 it peaked towards October. So going by that we have up to October 2011 to peak this one.
Hi, Steve C. here,
ReplyDeleteTim Wood counts the four year cycle low at the 666 low on the SPX around, from memory, March 9, of 2009. October is the 19 month since that low. He studied Dow history back to it's inception, and discovered the next four year cycle low goes below the previous low 100% of the time, if the advance off that low carries forward for 20 months or less (a very bearish stat). These stats were only for his paid subscribers, not posted publicly. November is the 20th month. So, if Terry is right and we do not make a higher high after November, those four year cycle stats would be in play. And because the move into the 2007 four year cycle peak was stretched, he suspects the next four year cycle low will come in a bit early, like around the late 2012 to March 2013 timeframe.
On earlier comments, I just find Elliott Wave a useful tool to assess how close a trend is to ending, and it helps increase the odds of my positions. Have to leave for the ferry boat to get off Marthas Vineyard, now, so got to sign off.
Best,
steve c.
Thanks Steve. Everyone has different defination of 4 yr cycle. To me I go with 4 yr P cycle as 4 yr cycle so all mid-term election yrs is 4 yr cycle. So by that standard 4 yr cycle low happened this year and next will happen in 2014 which is then 40 yr cycle low from 1974 or even before 1934. Thats why I wrote above. I find Andre Gratian very good. Also instade of march 2009 if we take late 2008 low for analysis then that goes better with cycle analysis as stated above. Also I think higher values are coming after November too as year after mid-term is always rising too. So I am going with my above cycles with peak in 2011 and bottom in 2014 going below late 2008 bottom and staying above 1996 bottom. March 2009 bottom price is not relevant in this case. Of ocurse I may be wrong for sure.
ReplyDelete