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"Parker has sent me a very interesting concept which is the NY Advance Decline line divided by the put-call ratio . . . What he's done is introduce the idea of sentiment." September 15, 2010

"Parker discovered the Money Flow Ts . . . This is something like the Holy Grail in T Theory. You are always looking for something that will help you refine the peak date." October 17, 201

"Money Flow Ts are probably the greatest new thing I have seen in 20 years in terms of time symmetries." December 5, 2010.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

$$ NYSE Megaphone Pattern

We are fast approaching the top boundary of a megaphone pattern on the NYSE:











Megaphone or broadening patterns are bearish, and according to Edwards & Magee generally appear at the end or in the final phases of a long bull market.
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18 comments:

  1. UnknownFebruary 16, 2011 at 10:46 PM

    Parker, you do great technical analysis and I greatly enjoy visiting your blog daily. Since Mar '09, and espeically in '10 much of the technical work, and sentiment indicators are not working (e.g. dec null echo.).

    Since you're inquisitive like me, take a look at long term S&P performance before, during, after, and then again, during, QEII operations.

    First we crashed in '08 thru Mar of '09. When QEI started we rose until 1 month after it ended (settlement). During QE1 we had 2 - 60 point corrections and 1 - 100+ one near the end. Other than those is was a great rally.

    After QEI ended in March and settled in April, the market crashed and was wild through July/Sept when QEII was announced. Since then (Sept), we've been in a nice up pattern. One small 50 point dip in Nov. This QE is FAR more condenesed and focused in scope than QEI and the rise is more steady (hugging). They learned a lot during QEI. Now the programs dominate. Please take a look. I think you may conclude all 'big 50-60+ point corrections" are on hold until one month prior to the end, which mean May.

    Take a look at a 3 year chart and plot QE's, I'd love your thoughts and opinions if you have any. My thesis is shorts are up against a wall of money that is not going away until June. (probably psychologially going away in May.)

    As Terry said in December: paraphrasong, I'm cancelling my null echo low correction predition: don't fight the fed.

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  2. Research StaffFebruary 16, 2011 at 11:50 PM

    That's a megaphone pattern? Wow. Are you sure?

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  3. joedFebruary 17, 2011 at 3:38 AM

    What you do have..............

    is a 1 X 1 completion coming!! Good trading!

    ReplyDelete
  4. NC2February 18, 2011 at 12:04 AM

    Interesting observation Parker, The link below will give more example to this pattern. However, I have to agree with Hunt with his QE2 point of view. Either that or we are in what Don Wolanchuck would said epicenter of 3 of 3.

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5623.html

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  5. FredFebruary 18, 2011 at 8:48 AM

    Parker,

    Did you have a specific date you expected a turn based on your MFI for the S&P. Looks like the combination of yesterday and today should provide at least a short term turn.

    After that, the consensus is higher prices into March...possibly as high as 1440 by some, though that seems way too high. I think the 1360 to 1380 area is a more likely target after any decline (if one occurs).

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  6. joedFebruary 18, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    ES H1

    I talked of the 1333 level and if broken the 1342 was next………..since I have a choppy cycle top in my analysis coming, I am shorting against levels now with close stops and initial position probing! 1351 is above …………but a close above 1342 is needed first!

    SI H1

    Silver also at critical price levels of resistance………taking profit off the board in both futures and stock (CDE)………looking to now buy ZSL.

    Good trading!

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  7. joedFebruary 18, 2011 at 11:25 AM

    ES H1 DOW

    ES H1 1 X 1 at 1359 price level

    DOW 1 X 1 at 13477 price level


    Good trading!

    ReplyDelete
  8. delfinaisyoungFebruary 20, 2011 at 12:49 AM

    For those looking for a reason for an unwarranted selloff look no further than the rumour that the Gov't might shutdown. Events have a way of working to trigger what the charts tell us already. Couple that with Irans warships moving through the Suez Canal and any little provacation will send things wildly down even if only temporary. That's all it takes folks regardless of how much stock you put in QE2 at the moment. Don't be foolish. Holding LONGS is not a good idea at the moment. JMHO.

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  9. marketliveFebruary 20, 2011 at 4:15 PM

    delfinaisyoung- ur view is conventional. everyone knows what you know and the market still is very strong. something to think about.

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  10. joedFebruary 22, 2011 at 4:17 AM

    ES H1

    I talked above of the 1342 price area to short against as I am stalking the short side of this market.............short the ES 1341.50, long SDS! Good trading!

    ReplyDelete
  11. joedFebruary 22, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    ES H1...........

    Took profits on the above short in the stock market at 1319 as I mentioned I have a choppy cycle down so I will now wait for the next signal with a nice and quick profit in both the ES and SDS! Good trading!

    ReplyDelete
  12. FredFebruary 22, 2011 at 2:48 PM

    If we print a lower low tomorrow, we could retrace back up to 1340 or so, but the next 100 points will be down and not up.

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  13. joedFebruary 23, 2011 at 9:40 AM

    ES H1

    Gann support at 1306 ...........looking for retrace from here to sell again! Good trading!

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  14. joedFebruary 23, 2011 at 11:05 AM

    ES H1

    A close below the 1306 level ......I will be watching then the 1292 to 1297 area! Good Trading!

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  15. joedFebruary 23, 2011 at 11:20 AM

    ES H1

    Unless there is an iversion I am looking for a swing bottom into 2/26.....Good trading!

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  16. joedFebruary 23, 2011 at 12:43 PM

    ETF TRADERS..........

    Might want to start looking at JJG and ZSL! Good trading!

    ReplyDelete
  17. joedFebruary 23, 2011 at 2:08 PM

    ES H1

    I mentioned above the 1297 area low....the low today 1297.50 with reversal! Good trading!

    ReplyDelete
  18. joedFebruary 24, 2011 at 1:30 PM

    ZSL...............SILVER/GOLD

    I commented above days ago about buying ZSL........short Silver! LET DA BIG DOGS ROAR! Good trsding!

    ReplyDelete

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