The Dow closed up 143.22 points today in May's first trading day, continuing a trend that started 13 years ago.
The Dow closed at 7622.42 on September 2, 1997. Since then, the Dow has gained a total of 3529.41 points. The first day of trading of the last 153 months have seen cumulative gains of 5173.23 points. Meaning all the other days of the month have combined to lose 1643.82 points.
First trading days of the month have averaged gains of 33.8 points per day over that span. 99 of 153 first trading days were winners (64.7%). The average winning first trading day returned 105.3 points. The average losing first trading day lost 97.2 points.
The first trading day of May is by far the best over the period, while the first trading day of August is by far the worst.
As you might expect, first trading days in bull markets perform much better. From September 1997 to September 2000, first trading days went 30-7 for 81% winners. The average win was 106.6 points, and the average loss was 87.7 points.
From November 2002 to October 2007, first trading days went 41-19 for 68% winners. The average win was 82.9 points, and the average loss was 42.5 points.
From April 2009 to present, first trading days are 12-2 for 86% winners. The average win is 113.3 points, while the average loss is 194.34 points (likely skewed by the small sample size).
In stock bear markets since 1997, first trading days are just 16-26 for 62% LOSERS. The average loss was 131.8 points while the average win was 153.4 points. Performance was particularly bad at the tail end of bear markets.
Tip of the hat to the Stock Traders Almanac for this bit of trivia.
The Dow closed at 7622.42 on September 2, 1997. Since then, the Dow has gained a total of 3529.41 points. The first day of trading of the last 153 months have seen cumulative gains of 5173.23 points. Meaning all the other days of the month have combined to lose 1643.82 points.
First trading days of the month have averaged gains of 33.8 points per day over that span. 99 of 153 first trading days were winners (64.7%). The average winning first trading day returned 105.3 points. The average losing first trading day lost 97.2 points.
The first trading day of May is by far the best over the period, while the first trading day of August is by far the worst.
As you might expect, first trading days in bull markets perform much better. From September 1997 to September 2000, first trading days went 30-7 for 81% winners. The average win was 106.6 points, and the average loss was 87.7 points.
From November 2002 to October 2007, first trading days went 41-19 for 68% winners. The average win was 82.9 points, and the average loss was 42.5 points.
From April 2009 to present, first trading days are 12-2 for 86% winners. The average win is 113.3 points, while the average loss is 194.34 points (likely skewed by the small sample size).
In stock bear markets since 1997, first trading days are just 16-26 for 62% LOSERS. The average loss was 131.8 points while the average win was 153.4 points. Performance was particularly bad at the tail end of bear markets.
Tip of the hat to the Stock Traders Almanac for this bit of trivia.
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From April 2009 to present, first trading days are 12-2 for 86% winners. The average win is 113.3 points, while the average loss is 194.34 points (likely skewed by the small sample size).
ReplyDeleteSkewed... yes. Likely a good snapshot of a secular bear market masquerading as a bull... probably yes.
MMR
Hi MMR
ReplyDeleteI subscribe to the 17-year stock market cycle theory Buffett wrote about in Fortune magazine in 1999. There's no doubt in my mind we are in a secular bear market for stocks.
The rally since March 2009 has been fun, but I don't see it lasting much longer. I've got my eyes peeled for signs of a top.