On Friday 8/28, a Morgan Stanley analyst downgraded Bristol Myers from equal-weight to overweight, and share prices fell 3.92 standard deviations (vs previous 20-days).
There was no bad news. The analyst simply thought the drugmaker's stock was trading at a premium price after recent gains.
To put that price drop into perspective, a 4 standard deviation price move should normally happen once every ~1000 trading years.
Looking at the chart, BMY broke out of a $18.75-$20.50 three month trading range in July, climbing to $23 at the end of August before the Morgan Stanley report.
Now, BMY has fallen back to $21.50 where a former top (and the 50-day EMA at 21.37) is serving as support. The RSI is 45, and still trading in the 40-80 uptrend range. Further, the RSI has made an intermediate positive reversal with the July 20 low -- the price is higher despite a lower RSI value.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see BMY at $25+ by or before October.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
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