Huummmm...Nov 12th.....So I guess the initial response to the Nov elections will be "the bad guys got beat and the good guys won" then there will be a week and a half of reflection and the market will suddenly come to the conclusion it wasn't a problem with the party in control, rather the recognition that the system is broken, and the depression really is on!
The Stock Traders Almanac notes that the 5 days before and 3 days after midterm elections have been extraordinarily bullish since 1934. The average 8-day gain is 2.7%, and 1994 was the only losing period.
When the President's party gains seats or loses less than 10% of its seats, the average market gain is 3.4%.
When the President's party loses more than 10% of its seats, the average market gain is 2.1%.
Also, don't forget we have the Fed meeting announcement at 2:15 pm EST on Nov 3, the day after the election. The market is pricing in a QE2 announcement at that meeting.
Position just to test my understanding. Your works shows a back off/correction low Oct 18 then a final rally to Nov 12. Does your work line up with Terry after that wherein we head down to 2013/16 or as late as 2020? Thanks
The short range correction cycle low has been moved to October 20.
I agree with Terry that we begin a new bear-bull cycle after Nov 2010. I don't know how long that cycle will last, but generally I agree with Terry on his 40 year cycle calling for a final top in gold around 2020 and a final bottom in stocks around 2022.
Hi Parker - Found your site through Terry . Does this latest rally change your upside targets for the eventual Nov top? I know before when a projected top was expected to occur lastweek that you thought the ensuing rally would take us up to 1150-1225...wondering since we're already there if you predict we could break those highs by a good chunk after this next low.
Huummmm...Nov 12th.....So I guess the initial response to the Nov elections will be "the bad guys got beat and the good guys won" then there will be a week and a half of reflection and the market will suddenly come to the conclusion it wasn't a problem with the party in control, rather the recognition that the system is broken, and the depression really is on!
ReplyDeleteHi BillH
ReplyDeleteThe Stock Traders Almanac notes that the 5 days before and 3 days after midterm elections have been extraordinarily bullish since 1934. The average 8-day gain is 2.7%, and 1994 was the only losing period.
When the President's party gains seats or loses less than 10% of its seats, the average market gain is 3.4%.
When the President's party loses more than 10% of its seats, the average market gain is 2.1%.
Also, don't forget we have the Fed meeting announcement at 2:15 pm EST on Nov 3, the day after the election. The market is pricing in a QE2 announcement at that meeting.
ReplyDeletePosition just to test my understanding. Your works shows a back off/correction low Oct 18 then a final rally to Nov 12. Does your work line up with Terry after that wherein we head down to 2013/16 or as late as 2020? Thanks
ReplyDeleteb
ReplyDeleteThe short range correction cycle low has been moved to October 20.
I agree with Terry that we begin a new bear-bull cycle after Nov 2010. I don't know how long that cycle will last, but generally I agree with Terry on his 40 year cycle calling for a final top in gold around 2020 and a final bottom in stocks around 2022.
Hi Parker - Found your site through Terry . Does this latest rally change your upside targets for the eventual Nov top?
ReplyDeleteI know before when a projected top was expected to occur lastweek that you thought the ensuing rally would take us up to 1150-1225...wondering since we're already there if you predict we could break those highs by a good chunk after this next low.
rjo
ReplyDeleteWe'll have to see whether the anticipated correction materializes and to what extent. But generally speaking, time is more important than price.